Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race on Sunday, and the hunt is on to determine who the new Democratic vice presidential candidate will be for the 2024 campaign.
The presumptive Democratic nominee for president is Kamala Harris, who is a massive -1400 favorite to take over Biden's mantle. The President has endorsed her and so have many top Democratic officials.
In addition, campaign finance laws stipulate that the nearly $300 million the Biden campaign has raised the last three months can only be transferred to Harris because she was on the ticket. Other candidates would have to makeup for that financial gap in an incredibly short period of time.
As for the vice presidential race, the top contenders are Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro (+140) and North Carolina governor Roy Cooper (+300). Both are popular, relatively bipartisan leaders of crucial swing states that will change the tide of the November election.
If either are selected, it would follow the tradition of targeting popular swing state candidates for VP — something the Republicans eschewed when picking Ohio Senator J.D. Vance as Donald Trump's running mate.
2024 Democratic Vice Presidential Odds
| Vice Presidential Candidate | Appointment Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Shapiro | +140 | 32.85% |
| Roy Cooper | +300 | 19.71% |
| Mark Kelly | +500 | 13.14% |
| Andy Beshear | +600 | 11.26% |
| Pete Buttigieg | +1000 | 7.17% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +3300 | 3.75% |
| Jay Robert Pritzker | +5000 | 3.03% |
| Hillary Clinton | +10000 | 3.03% |
| Michelle Obama | +10000 | 3.03% |
| Gavin Newsom | +10000 | 3.03% |
Odds are according to BetMGM in the UK.Chance to win the election and election predictions are based on implied probability with the vigorish removed. These markets are not available at sportsbooks in the U.S.
Some familiar faces are farther down on the leaderboard — especially those who have focused more on national politics instead of local ones for the last four years. Arizona Senator Mark Kelly is a former astronaut and husband of Gabby Giffords, who was the victim of gun violence when she served in Congress.
His national profile was elevated after contentious wins against Martha McSally and Blake Masters in back-to-back Senate elections in 2020 and 2022. Kelly clocks in at third place on this leaderboard at +500 odds.
Pete Buttigieg is also a national figure after coming out of nowhere to compete in the 2020 Democratic primary. The former Afghanistan veteran, Harvard grad and South Bend mayor has proven he can be popular in more moderate swing states, but his odds don't compete with the governors on this list. At +1000, his odds imply just over a 7% chance of securing the nomination.
The longshots are all interesting national figures who possess their own flaws and merits. Gretchen Whitmer survived a kidnapping plot by right wing extremists and has been a darling of the Democratic Party since winning her gubernatorial election in 2018, but she has served as a Republican bogeyman for various policy initiatives.
Hillary Clinton, of course, was the 2016 nominee for President, narrowly losing to Trump. And Michelle Obama was the First Lady with plenty of pull among low-interest voters in swing states. However, both are irrevocably tied to the Democratic establishment.
Meanwhile, less popular national figures in Jay Robert Pritzker and Gavin Newsom are at the bottom of this odds board. Pritzker is part of the family that owns Hyatt and is the billionaire governor of Illinois, where he has caused controversy. The same goes for Gavin Newsom, who has garnered criticism over his tenure managing California.
