According to the latest data from a European betting exchange market, former President Donald Trump currently has the best chance to win the 2024 presidential election.
Trump, who lost the 2020 election to Democratic nominee Joe Biden, is listed at +275 American odds to become the president once again. President Biden is +550. The other two candidates listed are Vice President Kamala Harris (+1600) and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (+650).
Broken down by traditional percentages, Trump has a 26% chance, ahead of Biden (16%), DeSantis (14%) and Harris (6%).
This is according to Smarkets, a betting exchange in the United Kingdom which offers customers a chance to wager against each other rather than a traditional sportsbook.
"Donald Trump has now hit an all-time high mark on the Smarkets exchange and is pulling away as the clear favorite to win the 2024 election, " Smarkets Head of Political Markets Matthew Shaddick said. "Polls continue to place him way ahead of any other Republican and Smarkets prices rate him a 70% chance to run again."
PredictIt, another betting exchange company, has Trump even more likely to win at 29%. While Biden is second at Smarkets, he's behind DeSantis at PredictIt. DeSantis is right behind Trump at 28%. Biden is 22% at PredictIt.
According to Action Network's Anthony Dabbundo, who analyzes the political market, Biden's place is notably low for a sitting president.
"President Biden’s low approval ratings and the forecasted lasting inflation have hurt his chances to win re-election in 2024 in the betting markets, with former President Trump expected to run again and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis seen as the top frontrunners to challenge him," Dabbundo said. "Biden's standing in the market is especially low because of the uncertainty of whether or not he’ll run again due to his advanced age, despite the fact it’s unprecedented for a sitting President to not seek a second term in office if in good health."
With midterms set for November, markets are likely to move based on results. However, Dabbundo cautions not to put a ton of stock in whatever happens.
"It’s important to note that there’s not much correlation between a party’s showing in a midterm election and how the President will perform in the next election, as shown by President Obama’s re-election in 2012 after a historic defeat for Democrats in 2010," he said.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden's approval rating as of May 26th, the 492nd day of his presidency, was 40.8%. To compare, President Trump's approval rating on his 492nd day was 42.7%. Trump's approval rating at the end of his presidency was 38.6%, the lowest since President Jimmy Carter in 1981.
There have been no declarations from President Trump or Governor DeSantis regarding the 2024 election. President Biden has also not officially declared his intentions for 2024.
