As of August 8, 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris is the betting favorite over Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, according to the latest presidential election odds. And her odds have kept getting slightly better in the days since.
This is the first time this election cycle that Harris has been the favorite over Trump in the odds-based presidential election predictions. In fact, this is the first time since his arrest last August that former president Trump has not been the betting favorite to win the Electoral College in November and re-claim the White House.
Let's look at the latest predictions for the 2024 presidential election based on the updated election betting odds.
2024 Presidential Election Odds, Predictions
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -122 | 51.20% |
| Donald Trump | +100 | 46.58% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +10000 | 0.92% |
| Hillary Clinton | +20000 | 0.46% |
| Michelle Obama | +20000 | 0.46% |
| Nikki Haley | +25000 | 0.37% |
Odds are according to BetMGM in the United Kingdom. The "chance to win the election" percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is not legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States.
Kamala Harris Presidential Election Odds: Harris Biggest Favorite So Far
Vice President Harris' presidential election odds are -122, which gives her a 51.20% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election.
She first became the betting favorite over former president Trump when her odds moved to -118 on Thursday. Over the weekend, her odds got slightly better, moving to their current -122.
While moving from -118 to -122 might not seem much, Harris' improved odds along with Trump's odds getting slightly worse since Thursday have combined to increase Harris' odds of winning the 2024 presidential election from 50.24% on Thursday to the current 51.20%.
Donald Trump Presidential Election Odds: Trump No Longer Minus-Money
Trump's presidential election odds are +100, giving him a 46.58% chance of reclaiming the White House in November. This is the longest former president Trump's odds have been since shortly before Florida governor Ron DeSantis dropped out of the running for the Republican nomination back in January.
The odds-based presidential election predictions had given Trump a greater than 50% chance to win the election since March, when he swept the Super Tuesday Republican primaries. He first became the odds-on favorite at minus-money when he won the New Hampshire primary in January.
The last time Trump's odds were this short was when he was -105 in early May as he stood trial for his hush-money scandal, which gave him a 46.27% chance of winning the election at the time.
Trump opened as the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election at +250 back in July 2022, and he has largely been the favorite to win the election ever since, with only brief dips when he was indicted and subsequently arrested.
How Odds Have Moved The Past Week
Vice President Harris moved to minus-money for the first time in the 2024 presidential election campaign on Wednesday, after a rally introducing her VP choice, Minnesota governor Tim Walz, who went viral for a comment made at J.D. Vance's expense. At the time, former President Trump was a -118 favorite on Wednesday night over Harris, who was -110, with the race essentially boiling down to a coin flip. But on Thursday, those numbers had more or less flipped to Harris at -118 and Trump at -105.
Harris had hit her previous high water mark last Tuesday when her implied probability in the market sat at 45.68%, with betting odds at +100. Trump had still been the favorite with a roughly 52.15% chance, but it was the lowest mark he had put up all year.
Odds for Which Party Will Win the 2024 Electoral College
| Party | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | -122 | 51.87% |
| Republicans | +100 | 47.19% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +10000 | 0.93% |
The odds on which party will win the Electoral College, and therefore the White House, are very directly aligned with the odds for Trump, Harris and the rest of the field.
With Vice President Harris -122, the Democrats are also -122 to win the 2024 presidential election, giving the party a 51.87% chance of victory. The Republicans, like former president Donald Trump, are +100, with a 47.19% chance of winning.
This is the first time in 2024 that the Democrats have been favorites over the Republicans to win the 2024 election.
The current presidential election odds give an Independent or third-party candidate a 0.93% chance.
Presidential Election Odds for Winning Party of 2024 Popular Vote
| Party | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | -700 | 79.03% |
| Republicans | +350 | 20.07% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +10000 | 0.90% |
As for the popular vote, the Democrats are now massive -700 favorites, which equals a 79.03% chance of earning the most votes across the country. The Republicans are +350 to win the popular vote, a 20.07% chance.
The Dems have won the past four popular votes by at least 2% (4.45% in 2020, 2.09% in 2016, 3.86% in 2012 and 7.27% in 2008) and have won seven of the past eight popular votes overall.
Remember, though, that the United States presidential election is decided by which candidate wins the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Electoral College.
Electoral votes are allocated on a state-by-state basis, based on the number of members of the House of Representatives, plus the two members of the Senate in each state, with Washington, D.C. also having three electors, for a total of 538 electoral college votes.
That means that 270 electoral votes is the minimum number needed to win the majority of the votes. In the exceedingly rare event of a tie in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives determines the President, with each state having one vote, and the Senate determines the Vice President.
