We are just 50 days away from the 2024 presidential election. But before we get to the updated election odds and predictions on who will win the race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, let's talk about what happened this weekend.
Suffice it to say that this election will go down as one of the wildest in recent history, regardless of who wins. That trend continued on Sunday, as the Secret Service thwarted what appears to be a second assassination attempt on former President Trump in as many months.
Sunday's incident, which took place at Trump International Golf Club West Palm Beach, isn't something we're taking lightly. According to the New York Times, we still don't know as of late Sunday night/early Monday morning if the armed man fired any shots before he was spotted by the Secret Service, who fired on the man's location and took him into custody after he fled in a vehicle.
All we know for sure is that the former president was physically unharmed, unlike when Trump was struck by a bullet during a rally in Pennsylvania on July 13, a little over two months ago.
While former President Trump reportedly was joking with friends at his Mar-A-Lago home late Sunday afternoon about how the apparent planned attempt on his life ruined his round of golf, what happened Sunday and the uncertainty around the situation is scary, to say the least. The security of both candidates needs to be taken with the utmost seriousness by law enforcement and politicians on both sides of the aisle.
With all that said, just like July's assassination attempt, Sunday's events will undoubtedly have an impact on the Harris vs. Trump presidential race. Let's look at the latest chance to win the 2024 election 50 days before voters go to the polls on Tuesday, November 5.
2024 Presidential Election Odds
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -120 | 52.17% |
| Donald Trump | +100 | 47.83% |
Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The "chance to win the election" percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is not legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States.
Vice President Harris surged back into the lead in the odds-based presidential election predictions during her first debate against Trump. The former President said during a campaign speech last Thursday in Arizona that there would not be another debate this election campaign.
In the days since Harris' lead over Trump has grown slightly.
Harris 52% Favorite Over Trump 50 Days Before Election
With 50 days to go until the 2024 presidential election, Harris is a -120 favorite over Trump, giving her a 52.17% chance to win. Trump is a +100 underdog, which gives the former president a 47.83% chance of winning the election and re-claiming the White House.
Keep in mind that election odds provide a complement to national polls and state-by-state analysis, but they should be taken in the proper context. While election betting markets are often the first indicators of how voters perceive the two candidates, the odds are skewed by where bettors are placing their money based on which candidate they believe has value.
Election odds will also often include long-shot candidates that have no shot of winning — we're looking at you, Michelle Obama, for much of 2024 — just for people to place a ridiculous bet on them, whether for pure wish fulfillment or whatever reason, and the presence of such candidates can impact how odds translate into election predictions.
How Polls See the 2024 Presidential Election
According to election polling resource 538.com, Vice President Harris is projected to have a 48.1% chance of victory based on the website's "average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects." Trump, on the other hand, has a 45.4% chance to win in that same polling average, with the remaining 6.5% comprising undecided voters and those planning to vote for a candidate other than Harris or Trump.
Those numbers were as of Sunday morning, before the second apparent assassination attempt on the former president.
2024 Election Predictions: Which Party Will Win
| Party | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | -125 | 52.14% |
| Republicans | +100 | 46.93% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +10000 | 0.93% |
Lastly, the Democrats as a party are actually slightly bigger favorites than Harris herself to win the November election. The Democrats are -125 compared to Harris' odds of -120. The Republicans, like Trump, are +100.
Remember that the United States presidential election is decided by which candidate wins the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Electoral College, not who wins the national popular vote. Electoral votes are allocated on a state-by-state basis, based on the number of members of the House of Representatives, plus the two members of the Senate in each state, with Washington, D.C. also having three electors, for a total of 538 electoral college votes.
That means that 270 electoral votes is the minimum number needed to win the majority of the votes. In the exceedingly rare event of a tie in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives determines the President, with each state having one vote, and the Senate determines the Vice President.
