With the 2024 Democratic National Convention getting started on Monday, Vice President Kamala Harris remains a solid favorite to win the 2024 United States presidential election over former president Donald Trump.
There was a brief moment over the weekend where Trump actually became plus-money for the first time since January at +110. But those odds have moved again since, and as we enter Monday evening, the former president stands at even money to win the election.
Let's get to the latest 2024 presidential election odds and the predictions based on those lines with 11 weeks (and one day) to go until the November 5 election.
2024 Presidential Election Odds
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -125 | 51.28% |
| Donald Trump | +100 | 46.15% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +10000 | 0.91% |
| Nikki Haley | +10000 | 0.91% |
| Hillary Clinton | +20000 | 0.37% |
| Michelle Obama | +20000 | 0.37% |
Odds are according to BetMGM in the United Kingdom. The "chance to win the election" percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is not legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States.
2024 Presidential Election Predictions, Based on the Odds
Kamala Harris is the current favorite to win the presidential election. Based on her -125 odds, Harris currently has a 51.28% chance to win in November.
Donald Trump has a 46.15% chance to re-claim the White House, given his current +100 odds.
Keen-eyed readers will notice that the predictions for Harris and Trump only add up to 97.43%. The remaining 2.57% is scattered among Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Nikki Haley, Hillary Clinton and Michelle Obama. However, while all four of those names are still on the election betting odds boards, none has a greater than 1% chance of winning the election based on their current odds.
Presidential Election Prediction: Which Party Will Win?
| Party | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | -125 | 52.14% |
| Republicans | +100 | 46.93% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +10000 | 0.93% |
The odds on which party will win the Electoral College, and therefore the White House, are directly aligned with the odds for Trump, Harris and the rest of the field.
With Kamala Harris a -125 favorite to win the election, the Democrats are also -125, with a 52.14% chance of winning the Electoral College. The Republicans' +100 odds to win the election match Donald Trump's +100 odds. And the odds of an Independent or third-party candidate winning the election are 100-to-1, the same as Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Presidential Election Prediction: Winning Party of 2024 Popular Vote
| Party | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | -700 | 79.03% |
| Republicans | +350 | 20.07% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +10000 | 0.90% |
As for the popular vote, the Democrats are now massive -700 favorites, which equals a 79.03% chance of earning the most votes across the country. The Republicans are +350 to win the popular vote, a 20.07% chance.
Remember, though, that the United States presidential election is decided by which candidate wins the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Electoral College.
Electoral votes are allocated on a state-by-state basis, based on the number of members of the House of Representatives, plus the two members of the Senate in each state, with Washington, D.C. also having three electors, for a total of 538 electoral college votes.
That means that 270 electoral votes is the minimum number needed to win the majority of the votes. In the exceedingly rare event of a tie in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives determines the President, with each state having one vote, and the Senate determines the Vice President.
The Democrats have won seven of the past eight popular votes and four straight popular votes, each of those by at least 2%. That margin was 4.45% in 2020, 2.09% in 2016, 3.86% in 2012 and 7.27% in 2008.
