2024 Presidential Election Odds, Predictions
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -110 | 49.62% |
| Kamala Harris | -110 | 49.62% |
| Chase Oliver | +25000 | 0.38% |
| Jill Stein | +25000 | 0.38% |
Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The "chance to win the election" percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is not legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States.
The 2024 presidential election has come down to Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris.
That's not a particularly newsworthy sentence — except within the context of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., dropping out of the race on Friday. During a rather … intense statement, RFK Jr. also endorsed former President Donald Trump in the 2024 election.
What did RFK Jr's departure from the race and endorsement of Trump mean for the latest 2024 presidential election odds and odds-based presidential election predictions? The short answer: The odds didn't move at all. But there is slightly more to it than that.
How 2024 Presidential Election Odds Moved After Robert F Kennedy Jr. Dropped Out
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump were both -110 to win the election before RFK Jr.'s announcement he would suspend his campaign, and they are both -110 afterward.
The only two things that changed on Friday were that rather than RFK Jr., Tim Walz and JD Vance being on the election betting odds board along with Harris and Trump, the two frontrunners are now joined by Chase Oliver and Jill Stein, and the presidential election predictions on the chances to win for Harris and Trump changed ever so slightly.
Because RFK Jr. and his 100-to-1 odds no longer need to be accounted for as a slight possibility of winning the election, both Harris and Trump went from a 48.62% chance to win the election to a 49.62% chance, even though they were each at -110 odds to win the election before RFK Jr. dropped out and after his announcement.
Kamala Harris Presidential Election Odds
Vice President Kamala Harris' election odds are currently -110, giving her a 49.62% chance of winning the election in November.
Harris was a +5000 long shot to win the presidency before the debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, as it seemed highly unlikely at the time that Biden would drop out of the race. Minutes after that June 27 debate was over, she had moved to +1200, and her chances to win the presidency based on the odds surpassed Biden's on July 3.
Donald Trump Presidential Election Odds
Former President Donald Trump's election odds are currently -110, giving him a 49.62% chance of winning the election in November.
Trump has been as big as a -400 favorite this year, odds he reached shortly after he was shot at a campaign event in July. His odds have been no worse than +132 this calendar year, and he has been +100 or better since he won the New Hampshire Republican primary.
2024 Presidential Election Odds on Which Party Will Win
| Party | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | -110 | 49.53% |
| Republicans | -110 | 49.53% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +10000 | 0.94% |
The latest 2024 presidential election predictions on which party will win the White House in November are directly correlated to the odds of Harris or Trump specifically winning, which has been the case for most of the past month. The Democrats and Republicans are both -110, a 49.53% chance for either winning the election, with an independent or third-party candidate having a less than 1% chance, based on the odds, even after RFK Jr. dropped out.
2024 Presidential Election Odds for Winning Party of 2024 Popular Vote
| Party | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | -455 | 74.77% |
| Republicans | +275 | 24.32% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +10000 | 0.90% |
As for the popular vote, the Democrats moved from massive -700 favorites down to -455 earlier this week, which equals a 74.77% chance of earning the most votes across the country. The Republicans are +275 to win the popular vote, a 24.32% chance. The Republicans were +350 before the start of the Democratic National Convention.
The Democrats have won seven of the past eight popular votes and four straight popular votes, each of those by at least 2%. That margin was 4.45% in 2020, 2.09% in 2016, 3.86% in 2012 and 7.27% in 2008.
The popular vote is a reflection of national sentiment and often aligns with presidential election polling about the two major candidates, but it does not decide the election. Instead, the United States presidential election is decided by which candidate wins the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Electoral College.
Electoral votes are allocated on a state-by-state basis, based on the number of members of the House of Representatives, plus the two members of the Senate in each state, with Washington, D.C. also having three electors, for a total of 538 electoral college votes.
That means that 270 electoral votes is the minimum number needed to win the majority of the votes. In the exceedingly rare event of a tie in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives determines the President, with each state having one vote, and the Senate determines the Vice President.
