2024 Presidential Election Odds, Predictions | Donald Trump, Joe Biden Chances to Win Before Debate

Odds via BetMGM UK. Chance to win the election and election predictions based on implied probability with the vigorish removed.

The first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is here — and with just hours before the two candidates take the stage, here are the latest 2024 presidential election odds and predictions.

Heading into the election debate Thursday, Donald Trump is a -150 favorite to win the 2024 election for president. That translates to a 52.56% chance to win the election. Incumbent Joe Biden’s odds to win the election are +163, predicting a 33.31% chance of reelection for Biden in November — not according to national polls, but according to the betting markets.

Just over a week ago, Trump had -137 odds to win the election, while Biden's odds were the same as they are now at +163. Interestingly, even though Trump's odds to win were slightly worse earlier this month than they are now, those odds translated to a 53.80% chance of a Trump victory — higher than his current chances to win.

That's because of Michelle Obama.

The former First Lady has seen her own odds to win the 2024 presidential election move from +2500 to +1600. While Obama has been third in the election odds behind Trump and Biden for months, this is the best her odds to win the majority of the electoral college votes have been since late in 2023.

With a market as illiquid as presidential election odds, it's hard to know what exactly that means. The simplest explanation is the books continue to see bets coming in on Obama, either because people think there is value on her as a long shot — because they lack confidence in Trump and Biden for whatever reason — or because they just really, really want her to win.

There's another bit of context, though. Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has seen his odds continue to get worse and worse over the past few weeks. Heading into June, RFK Jr.'s presidential election odds were +2500. Last week, they were +4000. And headed into the presidential debate between Trump and Biden on June 27, Kennedy's odds are +5000.

Trump has been the odds-on favorite to win the election since his victory over former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, the last of the candidates opposing Trump in the Republican primary.

According to an aggregation of national polls on 538, Trump currently has a razor-thin 41.1% to 40.9% advantage over Biden in the race to win 270 electoral votes.

We'll update these odds as soon as the markets re-open after the debate.