If you just read the headlines, it seems like things are going fairly well for Vice President Kamala Harris as we get closer and closer to the November 5 presidential election.
A Times/Siena poll on Tuesday showed Harris ahead of former president Donald Trump for the first time since July. On the other hand, Trump is staring down reports that he has talked with Russia's Vladimir Putin several times since leaving the office.
However, the latest presidential election odds are nothing but good news for the former president. With just four weeks left before the November election, Donald Trump has surpassed Kamala Harris for the first time in a month, since their election debate in September.
With 28 days until the election, Donald Trump is a -118 favorite over Kamala Harris to win the presidency, according to the latest 2024 presidential election odds. Trump's -118 odds give him a 51.38% predicted chance of re-claiming the White House. Kamala Harris is a -105 underdog, giving her a 48.62% chance of winning the election.
United States Presidential Election Odds
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -118 | 51.38% |
| Kamala Harris | -105 | 48.62% |
Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The "chance to win the election" percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is currently not legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States.
But … why? Why are the election odds going in the opposite direction of so many of the other indicators on this election, both quantitative and qualitative?
The answer, in a word: Pennsylvania.
According to the latest odds-based presidential election predictions, Pennsylvania and its 19 electoral votes are now a toss-up, with both Trump and Harris -110 to win the Keystone State. Previously, Harris was a -125 favorite to win Pennsylvania, and Trump was a -111 underdog.
That's based on recent polling this week in Pennsylvania, as the Real Clear Polling average now shows the two candidates essentially neck-and-neck, with Trump holding a narrow 48.5% to 48.3% advantage (with the remainder undecided or too close to call).
What the Electoral Map Says About the Election
If Trump does win Pennsylvania, it becomes much more difficult to see a path to victory for Harris and the Democrats. The easiest answer would be to win North Carolina, but Trump is currently a -167 favorite there, with Harris +120. That gives Trump a 57.91% chance of winning North Carolina and Harris a 42.09% chance.
Winning Georgia would also do the trick, but that's slightly more unlikely, with Trump -200 (61.54%) and Harris +140 (38.46%). And while a Democratic victory in Ohio would offset losing Pennsylvania, Trump is a massive -5000 favorite there.
That means that based on the current electoral map, Harris could need to win multiple states where Trump is currently leading to get to 270 electoral votes if she doesn't win Pennsylvania.
So let's start with Arizona, which is worth 11 electoral votes. That would leave Harris 2 electoral votes shy of 270. She's currently a +175 underdog with an implied probability of just 33.73% to win the Grand Canyon State — and even if she did win Arizona while losing Pennsylvania, she'd still need to make up those 2 remaining votes in the Electoral College.
Yet this map already has Harris winning in New Mexico (5 electoral votes), Nevada (6 electoral votes), Wisconsin (10 electoral votes — where, by the way, she's only a -182 favorite, a 59.75% chance of winning the state), Virginia (13 electoral votes) and Michigan (15 electoral votes), so she can't "add" any of those votes to her count, either.
In fact, besides Arizona and the other states discussed above, the only other "swing state" that isn't already leaning toward Harris where Republicans aren't bigger than -1000 favorites is Florida, and Trump is precisely -1000 there with an 84.51% chance of victory, compared to Harris at +500 (and 15.49%).
All in all, Harris would probably need to win either North Carolina, where she's a +120 underdog, or Georgia, where she's +140, if she loses in Pennsylvania.
If we turn that around, Trump could still win the election while losing Pennsylvania by claiming Michigan or Wisconsin. Now, it is interesting that Harris' lead in those two states isn't any more tenuous than Trump's in North Carolina or Georgia. Harris is -182 in Wisconsin, bigger than Trump's -167 edge in North Carolina, and she's -225 in Michigan, larger than Trump's -200 advantage in Georgia.
Why Donald Trump is Now the Betting Favorite Over Kamala Harris
So, let's add it all up. Pennsylvania seems like the pivotal state in the 2024 election predictions at this moment in time. As Pennsylvania has moved to a 50/50 toss-up according to the election betting markets, Trump has claimed the lead in the 2024 presidential election odds.
Even though Pennsylvania is a toss-up and it would be hard for either candidate to make up for losing the state, it might actually be slightly more difficult for Trump to win Wisconsin or Michigan than for Harris to win North Carolina or Georgia. Still, Trump is the betting favorite.
Trump's lead in the latest election odds, then, likely reflects the fact that Pennsylvania has moved slightly in his direction at the same time that he has solidified leads in other swing states like Arizona (having moved from -225 to -250) and Georgia (which moved from -182 to -200).
Indeed, according to election expert Nate Silver's latest models, Trump has over a 92% chance of winning the election if he claims Pennsylvania, while Harris' chances to win are closer to 89% if she wins the state. That slight edge lines up with Trump's current lead in the election odds, as well — although Silver does have Harris as a 55/45 favorite as of Tuesday.
Presidential Election Predictions
| Party | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Republicans | -118 | 50.90% |
| Democrats | -105 | 48.17% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +10000 | 0.93% |
The odds on which party will win the November 5 presidential election are essentially the same as the Trump vs. Harris odds, with the Republicans -118 favorites like Trump and the Democrats -110 underdogs like Harris. The only wrinkle is the inclusion of odds of an Independent or third-party candidate winning the election at 100-1, or a less than 1% chance (and even that is obviously way higher than the actual chance of such an outcome).
Because this is a three-way market, the Republicans have a 50.90% chance to retain the White House, compared to Trump's 51.38% chance, while the Democrats have a 48.17% chance of victory compared to Harris' 48.62% chance.
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Election Odds and Chances to Win for Every State
| State | Trump's Odds to Win | Harris' Odds to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | -10000 | +3300 |
| Alaska | -10000 | +1200 |
| Arizona | -250 | +175 |
| Arkansas | -10000 | +3000 |
| California | +3000 | -10000 |
| Colorado | +1200 | -4000 |
| Connecticut | +2000 | -10000 |
| Delaware | +2500 | -10000 |
| Florida | -1000 | +500 |
| Georgia | -200 | +140 |
| Hawaii | +2500 | -10000 |
| Idaho | -10000 | +2500 |
| Illinois | +2500 | -10000 |
| Indiana | -10000 | +2500 |
| Iowa | -4000 | +1000 |
| Kansas | -10000 | +2500 |
| Kentucky | -10000 | +3000 |
| Louisiana | -10000 | +2500 |
| Maine | +650 | -1800 |
| Maryland | +3300 | -10000 |
| Massachusetts | +3000 | -10000 |
| Michigan | +150 | -225 |
| Minnesota | +1200 | -5000 |
| Mississippi | -10000 | +5000 |
| Missouri | -10000 | +2500 |
| Montana | -10000 | +1400 |
| Nebraska | -10000 | +2000 |
| Nevada | +100 | -137 |
| New Hampshire | +800 | -4000 |
| New Jersey | +1400 | -5000 |
| New Mexico | +1200 | -5000 |
| New York | +2500 | -10000 |
| North Carolina | -167 | +120 |
| North Dakota | -10000 | +3300 |
| Ohio | -5000 | +1200 |
| Oklahoma | -10000 | +3000 |
| Oregon | +1600 | -10000 |
| Pennsylvania | -118 | -118 |
| Rhode Island | +2500 | -10000 |
| South Carolina | -10000 | +2500 |
| South Dakota | -10000 | +5000 |
| Tennessee | -10000 | +5000 |
| Texas* | N/A | N/A |
| Utah | -10000 | +2500 |
| Vermont | +5000 | -10000 |
| Virginia | +650 | -1800 |
| Washington | +2000 | -10000 |
| West Virginia | -10000 | +3300 |
| Wisconsin | +130 | -182 |
| Wyoming | -10000 | +5000 |
*BetMGM does not have listed odds for Texas. This does not appear to be because the Lone Star State is all but decided, since states that are polling even more heavily for Trump are on the board. We have reached out to MGM to see if they have any comment.Â
Chance to Win Each State
| State | Trump's Chance to Win | Harris' Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 97.12% | 2.88% |
| Alaska | 92.79% | 7.21% |
| Arizona | 66.27% | 33.73% |
| Arkansas | 96.84% | 3.16% |
| California | 3.16% | 96.84% |
| Colorado | 7.31% | 92.69% |
| Connecticut | 4.59% | 95.41% |
| Delaware | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| Florida | 84.51% | 15.49% |
| Georgia | 61.54% | 38.46% |
| Hawaii | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| Idaho | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Illinois | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| Indiana | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Iowa | 91.48% | 8.52% |
| Kansas | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Kentucky | 96.84% | 3.16% |
| Louisiana | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Maine | 12.34% | 87.66% |
| Maryland | 2.88% | 97.12% |
| Massachusetts | 3.16% | 96.84% |
| Michigan | 36.62% | 63.38% |
| Minnesota | 7.28% | 92.72% |
| Mississippi | 98.06% | 1.94% |
| Missouri | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Montana | 93.69% | 6.31% |
| Nebraska | 95.41% | 4.59% |
| Nevada | 47.65% | 52.35% |
| New Hampshire | 10.22% | 89.78% |
| New Jersey | 6.37% | 93.63% |
| New Mexico | 7.28% | 92.72% |
| New York | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| North Carolina | 57.91% | 42.09% |
| North Dakota | 97.12% | 2.88% |
| Ohio | 92.72% | 7.28% |
| Oklahoma | 96.84% | 3.16% |
| Oregon | 5.61% | 94.39% |
| Pennsylvania | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| Rhode Island | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| South Carolina | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| South Dakota | 98.06% | 1.94% |
| Tennessee | 98.06% | 1.94% |
| Texas* | N/A | N/A |
| Utah | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Vermont | 1.94% | 98.06% |
| Virginia | 12.34% | 87.66% |
| Washington | 4.59% | 95.41% |
| West Virginia | 97.12% | 2.88% |
| Wisconsin | 40.25% | 59.75% |
| Wyoming | 98.06% | 1.94% |
Remember that the United States presidential election is decided by which candidate wins the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Electoral College, not who wins the national popular vote. (As an aside, the Democrats are currently -600 favorites to win the popular vote, with the Republicans +325). Electoral votes are allocated on a state-by-state basis, based on the number of members of the House of Representatives, plus the two members of the Senate in each state, with Washington, D.C. also having three electors, for a total of 538 electoral college votes.
That means that 270 electoral votes is the minimum number needed to win the majority of the votes. And with 34 days until the election, things are only going to heat up from here.
