The closer we get to the 2024 Presidential Election, the closer the race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden becomes.
That's according to the latest 2024 presidential election odds, which now predict just a 5% difference in the chance to win the election between Trump and Biden. That's a drastic shift from even just a month ago, when Trump was up by double digits over Biden.
But before we get to what the current odds say about 2024 presidential election predictions, let's take a look at the lines.
2024 Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate | Odds to Win Election | Election Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -105 | 46.42% |
| Joe Biden | +120 | 41.20% |
| Michelle Obama | +2500 | 3.49% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +2800 | 3.13% |
| Kamala Harris | +4000 | 2.21% |
| Gavin Newsom | +4000 | 2.21% |
| Nikki Haley | +10000 | 0.90% |
| Hillary Clinton | +20000 | 0.45% |
Odds via BetMGM UK. Chance to win the election and election predictions based on implied probability.
As bettors and those who have been following along with the presidential election odds know, the odds for each candidate can be translated into a percentage chance to win the election. That's called "implied probability." (For something like a presidential election, you'll want to calculate the "fair implied probability" by removing the percentage of each bet that sportsbook's keep as their profit.)
And on of March 10, Donald Trump had a 53% chance to win the election, according to the implied probability based on the odds at that time, while Biden's odds were closer to 40%.
As of today, Donald Trump's -105 odds to win the 2024 presidential election translate to a 46.42% chance of victory. Joe Biden's +120 odds to win the election equal a 41.20% chance of reelection.
Why are Trump's odds getting worse, at least relative to Biden's? It's a combination of factors. There's the fact that Trump is set to actually go on trial, with jury selection in his hush-money case starting Monday. The upholding of a total abortion ban from 1864 in Arizona is negatively affecting Trump and Republicans, with Trump saying the law "goes too far" even while mentioning the part he played in the overturning of Roe v. Wade.
The shifting odds are also a by-product of the field continuing to get clearer and clearer. Although we know this election will come down to Trump vs Biden once again, the sportsbooks are still keeping other names on the board and taking bets on the likes of Gavin Newsom and Hillary Clinton.
Still, Trump remains the favorite to win the election at -105. He has been the betting favorite to win the 2024 presidential election for almost the entire time since odds first opened in July 2022. At that time, Trump was +250 to win.
The only time that Trump's chances to win the election have been worse than Biden's in the past 20 months is when he was indicted by the federal government on four criminal charges related to overturning the 2020 presidential election. That happened in August, but by the time of the second Republican presidential debate in September, Trump had become the favorite once again.
Florida governor Ron DeSantis was also briefly the betting favorite to win the presidential election, all the way back in early November 2022. But that was a fleeting moment that we've all likely forgotten, with Trump moving back ahead of DeSantis by Thanksgiving that month.
While there are potential Republican candidates beyond Trump on the board, most of the other names on the list are Democrats who could step in if Biden doesn't run for whatever reason. As the odds on those long shots grow longer and longer, Biden's odds get better and he closes the gap on Trump.
Just like it's been throughout 2024, the rest of the presidential election odds board is all over the place. Michelle Obama has the next best odds to win the presidency after Trump and Biden at +2500, followed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at +2800. RFK's odds make a bit of sense as he'll be running a third-party/independent presidential campaign; Obama's odds, on the other hand, are almost certainly just there for the books to take bets from people with incredibly wishful thinking.
After all, even in the case that Biden were unable to run for reelection, it's hard to imagine anyone but Vice President Kamala Harris running in his place at this point in the election campaign, which seems to be reflected in Harris' +4000 odds to win the 2024 election.
Winning Party of 2024 Election
| Candidate | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Republicans | -118 | 49.75% |
| Democrats | -105 | 47.08% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +2800 | 3.17% |
The odds on which party will win the 2024 presidential election also indicate how this race has tightened, with the Democrats now minus-money to win the election. The Dems had been +100 in March, with the Republicans -122 and any other candidate winning at +3300.
As of Friday morning, the Republican Vice Presidential candidate odds for the 2024 election were off the board, but these were the lines as of Wednesday:
2024 Vice Presidential Candidate Election Odds
| Republican VP Candidate | Odds | Chance to be Nominee Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Kristi Noem | +450 | 16.32% |
| Tim Scott | +500 | 14.96% |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | +600 | 12.82% |
| Elise Stefanik | +900 | 8.98% |
| Ben Carson | +1000 | 8.16% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | +1000 | 8.16% |
| Nikki Haley | +1400 | 5.98% |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | +2000 | 4.27% |
| Tucker Carlson | +2000 | 4.27% |
| Doug Burgum | +2500 | 3.45% |
| Mike Pompeo | +3300 | 2.64% |
| Ron DeSantis | +3300 | 2.64% |
| Tudor Dixon | +33000 | 0.27% |
| Sean Hannity | +5000 | 1.76% |
| Ted Cruz | +5000 | 1.76% |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | +6600 | 1.34% |
| Candace Owens | +8000 | 1.11% |
| Glenn Youngkin | +8000 | 1.11% |
