With just 63 days — or approximately two months — until the 2024 United States presidential election on November 5, former President Donald Trump has reclaimed the lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, according to the latest presidential election predictions and election betting odds.
Labor Day marks a significant period when voters start focusing more intently on the election, and that has influenced the shift in betting odds favoring Donald Trump.
Last week, as I broke down the latest odds in each battleground state, the race was a 50/50 coin-flip between Trump and Vice President Harris. But whether it's because of Harris' recent interview with CNN or a recent poll that showed Trump with a lead in Michigan, the VP now trails the former President ever so slightly in the presidential election odds.
We are also now just one week from the first scheduled debate between Harris and Trump, as first announced by ABC News. Let's get to the latest chances to win for each candidate, plus the updated odds for each of the swing states and more.
2024 Presidential Election Odds
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -120 | 51.78% |
| Kamala Harris | +100 | 47.46% |
| Chase Oliver | +25000 | 0.38% |
| Jill Stein | +25000 | 0.38% |
Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The "chance to win the election" percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is not legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States.
Donald Trump's Odds to Win the Election
Donald Trump is once again the betting favorite to win the 2024 presidential election with -120 odds. The former president's election odds predict a 51.78% chance of victory.
Kamala Harris' Odds to Win the Election
Kamala Harris is currently an even-money (+100) underdog to Donald Trump in the latest 2024 presidential election odds. That gives her a 47.46% chance of winning the White House, according to the odds-based election predictions.
2024 Presidential Election Odds on Which Party Will Win
| Party | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Republicans | -120 | 51.68% |
| Democrats | +100 | 47.38% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +10000 | 0.94% |
The latest 2024 presidential election predictions on which party will win the White House in November are directly correlated to the odds of Harris or Trump winning, which has been the case for most of the past month.
With former President Trump a -120 favorite, the Republican Party is also -120 to win the White House. Similarly, as Vice President Harris is +100, so are the Democrats.
2024 Presidential Election Odds for Winning Party of 2024 Popular Vote
| Party | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | -455 | 74.77% |
| Republicans | +275 | 24.32% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +10000 | 0.90% |
As for the popular vote, the Democrats moved from massive -700 favorites down to -455 after the first day of the 2024 Democratic National Convention. Those -455 odds equal a 74.77% chance of the Dems earning the most votes across the country. The Republicans are +275 to win the popular vote, a 24.32% chance. The Republicans were +350 before the start of the Democratic National Convention. Since then, the odds to win the popular vote have stayed the same.
The Democrats have won seven of the past eight popular votes and four straight popular votes, each by at least 2%. That margin was 4.45% in 2020, 2.09% in 2016, 3.86% in 2012 and 7.27% in 2008.
Various polls have consistently shown the Democrats leading in the popular vote, which aligns with the current odds.
The popular vote is a reflection of national sentiment and often aligns with presidential election polling about the two major candidates, but it does not decide the election. Instead, the United States presidential election is decided by which candidate wins the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Electoral College.
Electoral votes are allocated on a state-by-state basis, based on the number of members of the House of Representatives, plus the two members of the Senate in each state, with Washington, D.C. also having three electors, for a total of 538 electoral college votes.
That means that 270 electoral votes is the minimum number needed to win the majority of the votes. In the exceedingly rare event of a tie in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives determines the President, with each state having one vote, and the Senate determines the Vice President.
Odds to Win Each Swing State in 2024 Presidential Election
| State | Republican Odds | Democratic Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | -137 | -100 |
| Florida | -1400 | +600 |
| Georgia | -225 | +150 |
| Michigan | +150 | -200 |
| Nevada | -125 | -111 |
| North Carolina | -182 | +130 |
| Pennsylvania | -111 | -125 |
| Wisconsin | +125 | -167 |
| State | Republican % Chance to Win | Democratic % Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 53.62% | 46.38% |
| Florida | 86.73% | 13.27% |
| Georgia | 63.38% | 36.62% |
| Michigan | 37.50% | 62.50% |
| Nevada | 51.36% | 48.64% |
| North Carolina | 59.75% | 40.25% |
| Pennsylvania | 48.64% | 51.36% |
| Wisconsin | 41.54% | 58.46% |
Swing state "chance to win the election" percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed, as well being adjusted for the 100-to-1 odds of an independent victory that oddsmakers are listing.
