2024 Presidential Election Odds, Predictions
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -400 | 64.94% |
| Joe Biden | +500 | 13.53% |
| Kamala Harris | +800 | 9.02% |
| Gavin Newsom | +1600 | 3.87% |
| Michelle Obama | +1600 | 3.87% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +3300 | 1.98% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +5000 | 1.59% |
| Hillary Clinton | +6600 | 1.21% |
Odds via BetMGM UK. Chance to win the election and election predictions are based on implied probability with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is not legally allowed in the United States.
After surviving an apparent assassination attempt on Saturday at a campaign rally, former President Donald Trump has become an even bigger favorite to win the 2024 presidential election.
On Saturday, Trump was struck during a shooting in Pennsylvania — a scary and tragic event that left at least one spectator dead and others injured.
After having his right ear bloodied, Trump fell to the ground, then, with the Secret Service helping him to his feet, Trump defiantly raised his fist as the crowd of his supporters cheered. The Secret Service told news agencies shortly thereafter that Trump was fine and had been taken to a hospital.
According to officials, the shooting was being investigated as an assassination attempt on the former president.
With Trump healthy and in good condition after the shooting, the conversation immediately turned to how the assassination attempt would play into the 2024 presidential campaign.
After the 2024 presidential election odds moved seismically overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, we have our answer.
Donald Trump Odds for President After Shooting
Former president Donald Trump is now a massive -400 favorite to win the 2024 election, giving him a 64.94% chance of winning the election in November. Trump had been -225 with a 57.24% chance of victory before Saturday's shooting.
The -400 election odds for Trump make him the biggest favorite in a United States presidential election since Trump himself was a -500 or longer favorite on the eve of the 2020 presidential election four years ago. It's also the first time a candidate has had implied odds of over 60% to win the 2024 election.
Current president Joe Biden has moved back up to the second-most likely odds to win the election at +500, a 13.53% chance of re-election. That makes for a whopping gulf between Trump's odds of -400 and Biden's odds of +500.
Biden had been +550 before Saturday's shooting of Trump, behind Kamala Harris at +450. Harris is now +800 in the wake of Saturday's unbelievable events.
Harris was +325 as of Friday evening, but her odds had moved to +450 several hours before Trump was shot at on Saturday night. Similarly, Joe Biden was +550 as of Saturday morning.
Keep in mind that election odds offer a complementary perspective to national polls as a means of election predictions for who will win the 270 electoral votes necessary to claim the Electoral College and avoid a presidential election being decided in the House of Representatives, which takes place if no candidate wins the necessary electoral votes.
Trump issued a statement about the shooting on Saturday evening.
Biden's odds to win the presidency have slid further and further in the days after the first presidential election debate in late June. While he was as short as +125 prior to that first debate, Biden moved to +425 immediately after the debate, but he remained the favorite among Democrats.
Vice President Kamala Harris became the favorite to lead the Democrat ticket on Wednesday, July 3. After a brief resurgence by Biden when he insisted he would remain in the race during an interview just a few days ago, Harris once again moved in front of Biden on Thursday night in the minutes prior to the president's press conference. Biden was +400 coming into that press conference, then moved to +450, then again to +550 and now to +500.
Trump first moved to -200 after the first presidential debate. Heading into that election debate, he was a -150 favorite to win the 2024 election for president. And just a week before the first debate, Trump had -137 odds to win the election.
Add it all up, and in the span of less than a month, Trump's odds to win the 2024 presidential election have moved from -137 to -400.
This is a developing story.
