2024 Presidential Election Odds, Predictions: Biden’s Odds Plummet After First Debate

Odds via BetMGM UK. Chance to win the election and election predictions based on implied probability with the vigorish removed.

With the first debate of the 2024 presidential election in the books, former president Donald Trump has become a massive favorite over incumbent President Joe Biden.

The rather seismic shift in the presidential election odds comes after Biden's startlingly poor performance in Thursday's debate, where the current president looked old and struggled mightily against Trump. While Trump wasn't particularly impressive himself, especially in the face of fact-checking, Biden simply failed to appear up to the task of fending off Trump's campaign to reclaim the White House.

Heading into Thursday's debate, former president Trump was -150 to win the election in November. As of Friday morning, Trump is -200 to win the majority of the electoral votes and win back the White House. Based on the implied probability of those odds, the latest presidential election predictions have Trump at 56.03% to win the 2024 election.

After the first debate, Biden fell from +163 all the way to +425, a jaw-dropping fall down the board. That gives Biden a 16.01% chance to win reelection. Biden had a 33.31% chance of reelection according to the odds-based election predictions before the debate.

While Trump's odds have gotten even better after the debate, his chance to win the election only rose a few points, from 52.56% to 56.03%. Instead, a lot of Biden's lost equity in the betting market has shifted to other potential Democratic candidates, amid discussions by Democrats about the possibility of replacing Biden as the party's candidate for president, according to the New York Times.

Gavin Newsom skyrocketed from +2500 to +650 following Thursday's presidential debate, with Vice President Kamala Harris also vaulting from +5000 to +1600. Gretchen Whitmer, who was previously longer than +20000 to win the election, is now +4000, with Hillary Clinton moving from similar 200-1 long-shot odds up to +5000.

Trump has been the odds-on favorite to win the election since his victory over former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, the last of the candidates opposing Trump in the Republican primary.

According to the Times, a group of Democratic members of the House of Representatives watched the debate together, with one calling the debate a "disaster" for Biden. The 538 aggregation of national polls was not immediately available with updated election projections after Thursday's debate, as we'll have to wait for Friday's newest polling data. But one imagines the results will not bode well for Biden.

If we zoom out beyond the candidates, the Republican Party is now also a -200 favorite to have the winning candidate in the presidential election on November 5. Those odds project as an over 60% chance the Republicans will win the White House in the betting market-based election predictions. The Republicans were -167 heading into the debate to emerge with the most electoral college votes, regardless of how the popular vote plays out. After all, it is the electoral college, not the the popular vote, that determines who wins the presidency.

The Democrats are now +145 to be the party that wins the election and were -105 before Thursday's debate, while an Independent or other party winning is now +4000. Relatedly, independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is now +5000 to win in November — the same odds as Hillary Clinton.