2024 Presidential Election Odds, Predictions | Guilty Verdict Narrows Trump’s Lead Over Biden

Odds via BetMGM UK. Chance to win the election and election predictions based on implied probability with the vigorish removed.

Donald Trump is still the favorite to win the 2024 Presidential Election, despite a guilty verdict that makes him the first former president to be convicted of a felony in American history.

His odds have shifted slightly from earlier this week. Prior to the verdict, Trump was a -150 favorite, meaning oddsmakers gave him a roughly 53% chance of winning the election. After being found guilty of falsifying business records, Trump's odds have fallen to -112, which translates to a 48.28% to win the election.

Meanwhile, President Joe Biden's odds to emerge victorious in November moved from +160 (a 34% chance) to +145 (a 37.3% chance). A $100 bet on his odds would earn $145 in profits.

Trump was convicted Thursday on 34 felony counts relating to a case in which he provided hush money through his former fixer, Michael Cohen, in order to cover up his affair with porn star Stormy Daniels ahead of the 2016 election. His sentencing is scheduled for July 11.

The conviction means Trump could be sentenced to up to four years in prison, but the appeals process is lengthy. In addition, Trump could receive just probation when sentenced later this year.

With roughly five months to go until the election, polls have reflected the lead Trump has in the marketplace. He's currently leading in states that Biden won in 2020, such as Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia and Michigan.