2024 Presidential Election Odds
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -225 | 55.80% |
| Kamala Harris | +200 | 26.87% |
| Gavin Newsom | +1600 | 4.74% |
| Michelle Obama | +1600 | 4.74% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +2500 | 3.10% |
| Hillary Clinton | +3300 | 2.37% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +5000 | 1.58% |
| JD Vance | +10000 | 0.80% |
Odds via BetMGM UK. Chance to win the election and election predictions are based on implied probability with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is not legally allowed in the United States.
President Joe Biden announced on Sunday he is dropping out of the 2024 presidential election and will no longer seek reelection.
The move comes after weeks of pressure on the president to withdraw from the race, following an awful showing in the first debate of this year's presidential election against former president Donald Trump.
Biden stated several times over the past weeks that he would not be dropping out of the race, but the pressure continued to mount as high-ranking Democrats publicly stated their desire to see Biden step aside, with the president seen as incapable of defeating Trump, as well as a drag on Democrats down-ballot across the country.
In the moments immediately after Biden's announcement, betting markets around the world took election odds off the board. But shortly thereafter, the markets were back live.
Here's everything you need to know about the 2024 United States presidential election odds following Joe Biden stepping aside, from the odds for Kamala Harris to win the election to how big of a favorite Donald Trump is and the odds for which party will win.
2024 Presidential Election Predictions
Kamala Harris Odds for President
With Joe Biden officially withdrawing from the race, Kamala Harris' odds to win the 2024 presidential election are now +225. That predicts a 26.87% chance of Harris winning the Electoral College in November.
While we don't officially know yet who will replace Biden as the Democratic nominee for president, Vice President Harris has been receiving endorsements all day, and she issued a statement of her own on Sunday.
Vice President Kamala Harris is a massive favorite to be the Democratic nominee for president at -1400, a 78.29% chance of securing the nomination to face former president Donald Trump in the 2024 general election.
Odds to Be Democratic Nominee
| Candidate | Odds | Chance to Be Nominee |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -1400 | 78.29% |
| Gavin Newsom | +1000 | 7.63% |
| Michelle Obama | +1000 | 7.63% |
| Hillary Clinton | +2000 | 3.99% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +3300 | 2.47% |
Odds via BetMGM UK.
Before Biden's announcement, Kamala Harris' odds to win the presidential election were +350.
Kamala Harris president odds had been as long as +5000 before the first presidential election debate in late June. After Biden's poor performance, Harris' odds vaulted to +1600. Less than a week later, she had surpassed Biden, moving to +450. Although Biden moved back in front of his VP a few days later, a speech to the nation on July 13 by Biden left election bettors unconvinced, as Harris became the Democratic favorite once more.
Biden was again favored over Harris when Trump selected JD Vance as the Republican vice-presidential candidate, but by the end of the Republican National Convention, as Democratic leadership made it clear they wanted Biden out, Harris became a bigger and bigger favorite over Biden as the biggest challenger to Trump in the race to win 270 electoral college votes.
Of course, if Harris is the Democratic candidate, as is assumed — in no small part because, according to most interpretations of campaign finance law, she is the only nominee who can use the war chest already accrued by the Biden/Harris campaign — she'll need a VP nominee of her own. And as soon as odds for that market are live, we'll make sure to let you know.
Donald Trump Odds for President
Donald Trump's odds to win the 2024 presidential election are -225, now that Joe Biden has dropped out of the election. Former President Trump's election odds equal a 55.80% chance of his reclaiming the White House. Trump has polled ahead of Harris but by a slightly smaller margin compared to his lead over Biden, although some polls have shown Trump performing just as strongly against Harris as Biden.
Former President Donald Trump had odds of -286 to win the election in November before Biden's announcement. Trump's vice presidential running mate, JD Vance, now has +10000 odds to win the 2024 election.
Election betting odds offer a complementary perspective to national polls and polls in various states on predicting which candidate will win.
Michelle Obama Odds for President
Michelle Obama's odds to win the 2024 election at first got slightly worse following the withdrawal of Biden, going from +2000 to +2500, but Obama is now +1600, tied with Gavin Newsom for the third-best odds after Trump and Harris.
Gavin Newsom Odds for President
California governor Newsom's presidential election odds initially stayed at +2000 in the wake of Biden dropping out, but Newsom is now +1600.
Gretchen Whitmer Odds for President
Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer's presidential election odds moved from +4000 to +2000 in the moments after Joe Biden's announcement, with Whitmer's odds having since moved to +2500.
Hillary Clinton Odds for President
Last but not least, former presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, who famously lost to Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election, despite being anywhere from a -200 to -300 favorite on Election Day 2016, moved from +6600 to +3300 after Biden dropped out.
Winning Party of 2024 Election Odds
| Candidate | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Republicans | -200 | 60.44% |
| Democrats | +140 | 37.78% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +5000 | 1.78% |
This is a developing story.
