2024 Presidential Election Odds, Predictions
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -200 | 57.41% |
| Joe Biden | +400 | 17.22% |
| Kamala Harris | +650 | 11.48% |
| Michelle Obama | +1600 | 5.07% |
| Gavin Newsom | +2500 | 3.31% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +3300 | 2.53% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +5000 | 1.69% |
| Hillary Clinton | +6600 | 1.29% |
Odds via BetMGM UK. Chance to win the election and election predictions are based on implied probability with the vigorish removed.
President Joe Biden has been quite clear this week: He will not be stepping aside in the 2024 presidential election.
And with that clarity, the 2024 presidential election odds are on the move once again, with the latest presidential election predictions now placing Biden back in front of his vice president, Kamala Harris. The kicker? While Biden is back as the presidential candidate with the second-best odds, he remains far behind former president Donald Trump.
Harris had moved ahead of President Biden after Biden's awful performance in the first presidential debate and amid calls — both public and private — for Biden to drop out of the race and allow the Democrats to nominate a younger, seemingly more fit candidate.
Even last week, when Biden said in an interview and on Twitter that he would remain the Democratic nominee for the 2024 election, the election odds still had Harris in front of the incumbent. But after Monday, when Biden sent a letter to congressional Democrats insisting he will continue his bid for reelection, the market shifted and reflected the renewed likelihood that Biden will, in fact, be on the ballot come November.
However, that "good news" for Biden is tempered by the actual presidential election odds.
Joe Biden Odds for President
Joe Biden is now +400 to win the 2024 presidential election with the necessary 270 electoral votes. Given the latest presidential election predictions, that gives Biden a 17.22% chance of reelection.
Although Biden has now said multiple times he will remain in the race, there remain public calls by high-ranking Democrats for the president to move over.
Donald Trump Odds for President, Chance to Win
Former president Donald Trump remains far ahead of the field in the most recent election odds. Trump is a -200 favorite to win the 2024 presidential election, an implied 57.41% chance of reclaiming the White House. At almost 60%, this is the highest chance of victory for Trump in the odds-based predictions in 2024. Trump first moved to -200 after the first presidential debate.
Kamala Harris Odds for President
After moving to as short as +400 odds, Kamala Harris' odds to win the 2024 election are growing longer. Harris is +650, an implied 11.48% chance of winning the presidency in November. Before the late-June debate, Harris was a +5000 long shot with a 1.72% chance of winning the presidency. Immediately following that first debate, Harris' odds vaulted all the way to +1200.
Remember, the odds offer a complement to national polls. According to one aggregation of said polls, Trump is ahead of Biden by a margin of 42.0% to 39.7%.
Lastly, with all of the election odds movement, the predictions for the winning party of the 2024 election also shifted slightly. The Republicans are now -225 to win the election. The Republicans had been -200 at the end of last week.
The Democrats are now +150, which equates to a 36.82% chance of maintaining control of the White House. An Independent winning the 2024 election is currently a +4000 long shot, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s current election odds at +5000.
Winning Party of 2024 Election Odds
| Candidate | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Republicans | -225 | 62.00% |
| Democrats | +150 | 36.82% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +4000 | 2.18% |
