2024 Presidential Election Odds, Predictions
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -225 | 53.63% |
| Kamala Harris | +325 | 18.23% |
| Joe Biden | +450 | 14.08% |
| Gavin Newsom | +1600 | 4.56% |
| Michelle Obama | +1600 | 4.56% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +3300 | 2.28% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +5000 | 1.52% |
| Hillary Clinton | +6600 | 1.16% |
Odds via BetMGM UK. Chance to win the election and election predictions are based on implied probability with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is not legally allowed in the United States.
"I've gotta finish this job."
Those were among the closing words from President Joe Biden on Thursday night, as he appeared in a nationally televised press conference to explain his perspective, his fitness to remain in the race (in his eyes, at least) and his insistence once more that he would not be dropping out of the 2024 presidential election.
Yet regardless of Biden's words Thursday, there was movement in the latest 2024 presidential election odds and presidential election predictions — and that movement spells bad news for Biden. Once again, he trails Vice President Kamala Harris in the updated election odds, with both Democrats far behind Donald Trump.
Former president Donald Trump is a massive -225 favorite to win the 2024 election following Biden's speech, and Vice President Kamala Harris is next at +325. Those election odds equate to a 53.63% chance of victory for Trump and an 18.23% chance for Harris. Biden is behind Harris, with his current election odds at +450 following his speech on Thursday night, a 14.08% chance of reelection.
Those election odds, which offer a betting-based complement to national polls about the race to win 270 electoral votes, will almost certainly continue to shift over the next few hours and days.
Joe Biden Odds for President
Biden's odds to win the presidency have slid further and further in the days after the first presidential election debate in late June. While he was as short as +125 prior to that first debate, Biden moved to +425 immediately after the debate, meaning a $100 wager would win $425. At that point, he was still the favorite to be the Democratic nominee.
But in early July, as the pressure on Biden to drop out of the race mounted, Vice President Kamala Harris became the favorite to lead the Democrat ticket on Wednesday, July 3. After a brief resurgence by Biden when he insisted he would remain in the race during an interview just a few days ago, Harris once again moved in front of Biden on Thursday night in the minutes prior to the president's press conference. Biden was +400 coming into Thursday.
Donald Trump Odds for President
Former president Donald Trump is a -225 favorite to win the 2024 presidential election, an implied 53.63% chance of reclaiming the White House. Trump's -225 odds are the biggest betting favorite he has been in the entire 2024 presidential campaign. Trump first moved to -200 after the first presidential debate.
Kamala Harris Odds for President
Kamala Harris' odds to win the presidency are +325, an 18.23% chance of Harris winning the Electoral College in November.
Harris was +650, an implied 11.48% chance of winning the presidency in November, before Thursday. And further back, before the late June debate, Harris was a +5000 long shot with a 1.72% chance of winning the presidency. Immediately following that first debate, Harris' odds vaulted all the way to +1200.
Winning Party of 2024 Election Odds
The Republicans are -225 to win the 2024 presidential election, a 62% chance of victory. Democrats are now +150, which equates to a 36.82% chance of maintaining control of the White House. An Independent winning the 2024 election is currently a +4000 long shot, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s current election odds at +5000.
| Candidate | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Republicans | -225 | 62.00% |
| Democrats | +150 | 36.82% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +4000 | 2.18% |
This is a developing story.
