Latest 2024 Presidential Election Odds Before Harris-Trump Debate

It's time for the first debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.

As we get ready for the debate to start, former President Trump is a -133 favorite to win the election, according to the latest 2024 presidential election odds. Vice President Harris is a +110 underdog. That gives Trump a 54.11% chance of victory and Harris a 45.14% chance, with a few long shot independents still on the odds board to make up the remaining less than 1%.

Of course, this is technically the second debate of the 2024 general election, and you probably remember the first. President Joe Biden had about as poor of a performance as one could have without literally falling on one's face. And before the night was even over, the case was being made for Vice President Kamala Harris to replace Biden as the Democratic nominee for president.

Now, just eight weeks before the November 5 general election, we have the first debate between Vice President Harris and former President Donald Trump. Let's dive into the latest presidential election odds and presidential election predictions based on the lines, including the odds to win each of the swing states.

Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The "chance to win the election" percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is not legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States.

Donald Trump is a -133 favorite to win the 2024 presidential election over Vice President Kamala Harris. At those odds, Trump has a 54.11% chance of winning the election.

This is the best former President Trump's odds have been since early August, right before Harris had narrowed her vice presidential choice down to Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro or Minnesota governor Tim Walz.

While dealing with a sample size of one, election debates have been kind to the former president so far in 2024. Before the first Trump vs. Biden debate, Trump was -150 and Biden was +163; after that debate, Trump became a heavy -200 favorite.

We'll see if Tuesday night's first debate between Trump and Harris has as positive an impact on the Republican nominee.

Harris is currently +110 to win the presidential election before the debate with former President Trump, giving her a 45.14% chance of winning the White House in November.

It was just over a month ago, on August 8, that Vice President Harris surpassed Donald Trump in the odds-based 2024 presidential election predictions. At the time, the election odds gave her a 51.20% chance of victory. Her chances got better and better heading into August's Democratic National Convention.

Since the DNC in Chicago, though, Harris has struggled to maintain her momentum. Between a tough jobs report and RFK Jr. dropping out, Trump drew even with Harris after the first night of the convention, with his odds improving slowly since.

At the current line of +110, Harris' odds are the longest since 100 days before the election, a week before she'd even selected Walz as her vice presidential running mate.

Swing state "chance to win the election" percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed, adjusted for the 100-to-1 odds of an independent victory that oddsmakers are listing.

We've only seen odds movement in three of the eight "true" swing states (with apologies to the likes of Colorado, Iowa and Ohio, where one candidate or the other is -2000 or better) since we last checked in:

• The odds in Georgia got slightly closer, as the Republicans moved from -225 to -182, reducing their odds of winning the state from 63.38 to 59.75%.
• The Democrats saw their odds to win in Michigan improve, going from -200 to -250 (62.50% to 66.27%).
• The Republicans saw their odds to win in North Carolina improve, going from -182 to -250 (59.75% to 66.27%).

According to a recent Quinnipiac poll, North Carolina is too close to call, with Harris actually showing a slight 49% to 46% lead in the Tar Heel State, while Trump currently has a 49% to 45% lead in Georgia.

The odds on which party will win the White House in November are closely correlated to the odds of Harris or Trump winning, which has been the case for most of the past month — but there's one wrinkle.

While both Trump and the Republican Party are -133 in their respective odds of winning the election, Harris has slightly longer odds at +110 than the Democrats do at +100. As a bettor and a politics watcher, I'm honestly going to assume that this is an oversight. The odds for Trump and Harris have been directly in line with the odds for their parties to win since Harris assumed the mantle from President Biden.

Don't be surprised if the line on the Democrats to win changes in the next day or two. For now, though, there's slight value on Harris relative to her party.

Electoral votes are allocated on a state-by-state basis, based on the number of members of the House of Representatives, plus the two members of the Senate in each state, with Washington, D.C. also having three electors, for a total of 538 electoral college votes.

That means that 270 electoral votes is the minimum number needed to win the majority of the votes. In the exceedingly rare event of a tie in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives determines the President, with each state having one vote, and the Senate determines the Vice President.

While the winner of the 2024 popular vote doesn't actually matter — instead, the United States presidential election is decided by which candidate wins the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Electoral College — it's not a great sign for Democrats that their odds here have gotten worse of late, as well.

The Democrats moved from massive -700 favorites down to -455 after the first day of the 2024 Democratic National Convention. This week, that line came down even further to -333.

Now, the Democrats have won seven of the past eight popular votes and four straight popular votes, each by at least 2%. That margin was 4.45% in 2020, 2.09% in 2016, 3.86% in 2012 and 7.27% in 2008. Various polls have consistently shown the Democrats leading in the popular vote, which aligns with the current odds.

But this is just another measure that perhaps Donald Trump and the Republicans are bouncing back after Vice President Harris and the Democrats saw such a lift in enthusiasm over the past six weeks — and, perhaps, a similar lift in their prospects in November.