2024 Presidential Election Odds for Harris, Trump, Democratic VP, More

Odds via BetMGM UK. Chance to win the election and election predictions are based on implied probability with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is not legally allowed in the United States.

Former President Donald Trump remains a big favorite to win the 2024 election in the latest presidential election odds — but Kamala Harris is now very much in the race.

The latest presidential election predictions based on the odds have moved swiftly this week, reflecting a wide range of potential election outcomes. And they moved again early on Friday morning when former president Barack Obama tweeted his endorsement of Kamala Harris for president.

(Side note: Obama shared his endorsement at 5 a.m. ET on Friday. That's awfully early. Was the tweet perhaps sent from Paris, the site of the 2024 Summer Games? If so, President Obama, we have some best bets you might want to consider!)

Obama had been one of the lone high-profile Democrats yet to endorse Harris, so one might imagine that his official support would change the election odds in the current vice president's favor.

But in a strange twist that we'll explain in just a moment, Donald Trump's odds surprisingly improved after Obama endorsed Harris.

Here's everything you need to know about 2024 presidential election predictions based on the updated election odds.

Latest Election Odds Movement

The reason former president Donald Trump's odds to become president improved when former president Barack Obama endorsed Kamala Harris for president has less to do with Harris than it does Michelle Obama.

Michelle Obama's presidential election odds have remained startlingly robust throughout this campaign, often hovering between +1200 and +2500. As recently as Wednesday, Michelle Obama's odds to be president were +2500, a 3.47% chance of winning the White House. Besides Trump and Harris, she was — and still is — the only potential "candidate" with odds shorter than 66-1.

But Michelle Obama is now +5000, which is just a 1.77% chance of winning the election, according to the odds. And much of that expected win percentage, as reflected in the election odds, slid over to Donald Trump, who went from -167 to -182 on Friday morning.

It's not much. Former president Trump's current presidential election odds of -182 equal a 58.25% chance to win the election. His odds-based predicted chance to win the election before Obama's endorsement was 56.38%. And like national election polls, the betting markets can be somewhat fluid, so that 1.77% difference amounts to a bit of noise — at least for now.

Kamala Harris Odds for President

Vice President Kamala Harris has +140 odds to be president, which equals a 37.61% chance of winning the presidential election in November. Vice President Harris' election odds of +140 are the best odds a Democrat has had to win the 2024 United States election since Donald Trump was found guilty in his hush-money trial in late May.

Harris had been a substantial long shot as recently as last month when she was +5000 before the first Trump vs. Biden debate. At that time, those were the same odds to win as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and only slightly better odds than Nikki Haley, who had dropped out of the race.

However, after Biden's stumbles in the debate and the resulting questions surrounding the Biden-Harris campaign, Harris moved to +1600, then quickly again to +1200. Six days after that debate, she was favored over Biden and trailed only Trump.

Although Harris is not officially the Democratic nominee for president, she is -10000 at BetMGM to secure the nomination. She has been endorsed by seemingly every high-ranking Democrat inside and outside of Washington.

The upcoming Democratic National Convention is crucial for Harris' campaign, as it will solidify her position as she aims to secure the necessary delegates before the convention begins in August.

Donald Trump Odds for President

Former President Trump remains a large favorite to win the 2024 presidential election at -182. Trump's odds to be president equal a 58.25% chance of the 2016 Electoral College winner re-claiming the White House.

Notably, President Joe Biden stepping aside in the 2024 election marked the first time since the first presidential debate back in June that Trump's odds of becoming president are worse than -200. Late Tuesday evening, Trump's odds to win the Electoral College slipped from -225 to -192. Then, on Wednesday morning, Trump's odds got a touch worse, moving from -192 to their current -167 before bouncing back to the current line of -182.

Trump became a -200 favorite immediately after the first presidential debate in June, following an awful performance by Biden that precipitated the president dropping out of the race.

Odds are according to BetMGM in the UK.Chance to win the election and election predictions are based on implied probability with the vigorish removed. These markets are not available at sportsbooks in the U.S.

The Democratic Vice Presidential odds were initially quite hot on Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, who opened as a +140 favorite to join Kamala Harris on the 2024 Democratic presidential ticket. Shapiro, who has served as governor of Pennsylvania since 2023, is seen as a significant figure in the state's electoral landscape.

Throughout the past week, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly has climbed up the Democratic VP odds board and is now the favorite at +125. Kelly is a former astronaut and husband of Gabby Giffords, who was the victim of gun violence when she served in Congress.

Shapiro remains just behind Kelly at +225, followed by North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper at +400. Both Shapiro and Cooper are popular, relatively bipartisan leaders of crucial swing states — states that will change the tide of the November election.

Pete Buttigieg (+500) is also a national figure after coming out of nowhere to compete in the 2020 Democratic primary. The former Afghanistan veteran, Harvard grad and South Bend mayor has proven he can be popular in more moderate swing states.

A report earlier this week indicated the Harris campaign has reached out to the camps of Cooper, Kelly and Shapiro, as well as Minnesota governor Tim Walz (+1000) and Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer (+2500) to "request vetting materials."

Walz, the two-term governor of Minnesota, is also the chair of the Democratic Governors Association, which is actively involved in fundraising and campaigning for Democratic gubernatorial candidates.

Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear's influence on the election, particularly his stance on critical issues like abortion access and partisanship, is also a significant factor to consider.

The odds on which party will win the 2024 presidential election are moving in relative lock-step with the presidential election predictions for each individual, specific candidate.

Earlier this week, the GOP was -225, with a 62% chance to win the election. That line is now down to -182, with a corresponding 58.68% chance of victory.

The Democratic Party's odds to win the election have moved from +150 to +130, closing in on a 40% chance to win the election. Even as the party was going through the mini-crisis of whether or not Biden would drop out, the Democrats' presidential election odds never got any longer than +180.

Then there's the prospect of an independent candidate winning. First of all, those +5000 odds seem… overblown, to say the least (I would take the "No" side of that for almost any amount of money if it were offered).

Secondly, for most of this campaign, the odds of an independent president have been tied directly to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s odds, and he is now +10000. We'll have to see if the odds on "Independent/Any Other Party" move accordingly in the coming days.

As for the popular vote, the Democrats are massive -333 favorites. The Dems have won the past four popular votes by at least 2% in each (4.45% in 2020, 2.09% in 2016, 3.86% in 2012 and 7.27% in 2008) and have won seven of the past eight popular votes overall.

Remember, though, that the United States presidential election is decided by which candidate wins the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Electoral College. Electoral votes are allocated on a state-by-state basis, based on the number of members of the House of Representatives plus the two members of the Senate in each state, with Washington, D.C., also having three electors, for a total of 538 electoral college votes.

That means that 270 electoral votes is the minimum number needed to win the majority of the votes. In the exceedingly rare event of a tie in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives determines the President, each state having one vote, and the Senate determines the Vice President.