2024 Presidential Election Odds, Predictions: Odds for Swing States Predict Harris Will Beat Trump — Barely

With the 2024 Democratic National Convention in the rear-view mirror and Robert F. Kennedy having dropped out of the election, there is zero question, barring an earth-shattering event or decision, that this year's presidential election will come down to Donald Trump vs Kamala Harris.

Right now, the 2024 United States presidential election is a dead-heat, with Trump and Harris tied in the latest 2024 presidential election odds. But the closer we get to November, the more we can dig into election polls, data and more. So let's do just that, shall we?

Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The "chance to win the election" percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is not legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States.

Perhaps the biggest deciding factor in the 2024 election is how the various swing states will vote come November 5. And over the weekend, BetMGM UK posted presidential election odds for the eight states still considered toss-ups: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

First, we'll break down the election odds for both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, then move on to the odds to win each swing state in November.

Kamala Harris Presidential Election Odds

Vice President Kamala Harris' election odds are currently -110, giving her a 49.62% chance of winning the election in November.

Harris was a +5000 long shot to win the presidency before the debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, as it seemed highly unlikely at the time that Biden would drop out of the race. Minutes after that June 27 debate was over, she had moved to +1200, and her chances to win the presidency, based on the odds, surpassed Biden's on July 3.

Donald Trump Presidential Election Odds

Former President Donald Trump's election odds are currently -110, giving him a 49.62% chance of winning the election in November.

Trump has been as big as a -400 favorite this year, odds he reached shortly after he was shot at a campaign event in July. His odds have been no worse than +132 this calendar year, and he has been +100 or better since he won the New Hampshire Republican primary.

But which of these two candidates, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, will win the Electoral College and the 2024 presidential election in November? In the latest presidential election predictions based on the state-by-state election odds, the answer to that question is Kamala Harris — but only barely.

Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The "chance to win the election" percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed, as well being adjusted for the 100-to-1 odds of an independent victory that oddsmakers are listing. Gambling on elections is not legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States.

Based on the above odds for the swing states, plus the electoral college map available at 270toWin.com, we can take a swing at presidential election predictions for each of the eight swing states, and see how that math then adds up for the winner of the election.

Our map features three degrees of certainty of a party winning a given state — lean, likely or safe. For the sake of this exercise, we'll make an executive decision and color any state with a 50% to 55% chance for either party to win as a "lean" for that party on our electoral map. We'll call any state with a 55% to 65% chance of a party winning "likely" to be won by that party. And we'll consider anything over 65% "safe."

Arizona (52.71% chance of Trump winning), Nevada (52.71%) and North Carolina (59.75%) all lean Republican in the 2024 presidential election, according to the latest state-by-state election odds. Georgia* (63.38%) is "likely" to vote for Donald Trump in the 2024 election, and Florida (86.73%) is "safe" for Republicans.

Pennsylvania (52.71% chance of Harris winning) leans Democratic, while Michigan* (61.54%) and Wisconsin (58.46%) are "likely" to go blue.

*If you wanted to put Michigan as "safe" for Democrats and Georgia as "safe" for Republicans because both are over 60% for the respective parties according to the odds, I wouldn't quibble too much.

Based on the odds for each of those eight swing states, we are predicting Kamala Harris will win the 2024 presidential election over Donald Trump by a count of 270 electoral votes to 268. Harris would win the election on the strength of beating Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, with Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina projected to go for Trump, based on the election odds.

Here's what the 2024 presidential election map looks like based on the latest odds for the swing states, plus the default vote allocation for the rest of the 42 states and the District of Columbia:

Now, let's go state-by-state and take a look at the odds (this time, with the oddsmakers' included chances of an independent winning in any given state), plus how many electoral votes each swing state is worth and the recent voting history.

Arizona is worth 11 electoral votes. Arizona went for President Joe Biden and the Democrats in 2020. It was the first time Arizona voted blue in a presidential election since President Bill Clinton's reelection campaign in 1996.

Florida is worth 30 electoral votes. Florida went for former President Donald Trump and the Republicans in both 2016 and 2020. Florida voted for President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, and President George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004. In the past 60 years, Florida has voted for the eventual president in all but two elections — 2016 and 1992.

Georgia is worth 16 electoral votes. Georgia went for President Joe Biden and the Democrats in 2020. It was the first time Georgia voted blue in a presidential election since President Bill Clinton's election in 1992.

Michigan is worth 15 electoral votes. Michigan went for President Joe Biden and the Democrats in 2020. Michigan has voted blue in seven of the past eight presidential elections, the exception being Michigan going red for President Donald Trump in 2016.

Nevada is worth six electoral votes. Nevada went for President Joe Biden and the Democrats in 2020. Nevada has voted blue in the past four presidential elections, but voted for George W. Bush in both his campaigns in 2000 and 2004.

North Carolina is worth 16 electoral votes. North Carolina went for former President Donald Trump and the Republicans in 2020. North Carolina has voted red in 10 of the past 11 presidential elections, the exception being President Barack Obama's election in 2008.

Pennsylvania is worth 19 electoral votes. Pennsylvania went for President Joe Biden and the Democrats in 2020. Pennsylvania has voted blue in seven of the past eight presidential elections, the exception being President Donald Trump's election in 2016.

Wisconsin is worth 10 electoral votes. Wisconsin went for President Joe Biden and the Democrats in 2020. Wisconsin has voted blue in eight of the past nine presidential elections, the exception being President Donald Trump's election in 2016.

The latest 2024 presidential election predictions on which party will win the White House in November are directly correlated to the odds of Harris or Trump specifically winning, which has been the case for most of the past month. The Democrats and Republicans are both -110, a 49.53% chance for either winning the election, with an independent or third-party candidate having a less than 1% chance, based on the odds, even after RFK Jr. dropped out at the end of last week.

As for the popular vote, the Democrats moved from massive -700 favorites down to -455 after the first day of the 2024 Democratic National Convention. Those -455 odds equal a 74.77% chance of the Dems earning the most votes across the country. The Republicans are +275 to win the popular vote, a 24.32% chance. The Republicans were +350 before the start of the Democratic National Convention.

The Democrats have won seven of the past eight popular votes and four straight popular votes, each by at least 2%. That margin was 4.45% in 2020, 2.09% in 2016, 3.86% in 2012 and 7.27% in 2008.

The popular vote is a reflection of national sentiment and often aligns with presidential election polling about the two major candidates, but it does not decide the election. Instead, the United States presidential election is decided by which candidate wins the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Electoral College.

Electoral votes are allocated on a state-by-state basis, based on the number of members of the House of Representatives, plus the two members of the Senate in each state, with Washington, D.C. also having three electors, for a total of 538 electoral college votes.

That means that 270 electoral votes is the minimum number needed to win the majority of the votes. In the exceedingly rare event of a tie in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives determines the President, with each state having one vote, and the Senate determines the Vice President.