May is upon us, which means we are now just a little over six months away from the 2024 United States Presidential Election — 187 days, to be exact.
Every day brings more news on this year's presidential campaign, with Donald Trump now standing trial, some of his prospective running mates drawing massive attention (and not the kind they probably want), and current events reaching a boiling point across the nation. All of that and much more has an impact on the most recent 2024 presidential election odds, which also serve as presidential election predictions on the chance to win the election for each of the candidates.
Currently, former president Donald Trump is still the favorite to win the 2024 election, with the election odds giving him a 46.27% chance of winning the White House. Current president Joe Biden is just behind Trump, with the odds giving Biden a 41.06% chance of winning the election in November.
But that's just the start of what you need to know about the latest election odds. Let's dive in.
2024 Presidential Election Odds, Chances to Win
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -105 | 46.27% |
| Joe Biden | +120 | 41.06% |
| Michelle Obama | +2000 | 4.30% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +2800 | 3.12% |
| Kamala Harris | +5000 | 1.77% |
| Gavin Newsom | +5000 | 1.77% |
| Nikki Haley | +6600 | 1.35% |
| Hillary Clinton | +25000 | 0.36% |
Odds via BetMGM UK. Chance to win the election and election predictions based on implied probability.*
There's essentially been no movement in the election odds over the past month, a calm that comes after a fairly large shift in March. For most of April, Trump and Biden have been sitting at -105 and +120 odds respectively to win this year's presidential election. However, as recently as March 10, Trump was -125 and had an over 50% chance to win the election, according to the implied probability from the odds.
Trump's odds got worse and Biden's odds got better as we got closer to Trump's current trial in his hush-money case, but it seems that any impact that might have on Trump's chances was incorporated before the trial began, given the lack of movement since.
Trump has been the betting favorite to win the 2024 presidential election for almost the entire time since odds first opened in July 2022. At that time, Trump was +250 to win.
*As bettors and those who have been following along with the presidential election odds know, the odds for each candidate can be translated into a percentage chance to win the election. That's called "implied probability." (For something like a presidential election, you'll want to calculate the "fair implied probability" by removing the percentage of each bet that sportsbook's keep as their profit.)
Winning Party of 2024 Election
| Candidate | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Republicans | -118 | 49.75% |
| Democrats | -105 | 47.08% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +2800 | 3.17% |
2024 Vice Presidential Candidate Election Odds
| Republican VP Candidate | Odds | Chance to be Nominee Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Tim Scott | +300 | 23.98% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | +650 | 12.79% |
| Kristi Noem | +800 | 10.66% |
| Elise Stefanik | +1200 | 7.38% |
| Ben Carson | +1400 | 6.39% |
| Nikki Haley | +1400 | 6.39% |
| Doug Burgum | +1700 | 5.33% |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | +2000 | 4.57% |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | +2000 | 4.57% |
| Byron Donalds | +2500 | 3.69% |
| Mike Pompeo | +2500 | 3.69% |
| Tudor Dixon | +3300 | 2.82% |
| Ron DeSantis | +4000 | 2.34% |
| Tucker Carlson | +4000 | 2.34% |
| John Ratcliffe | +5000 | 1.88% |
| Glenn Youngkin | +8000 | 1.18% |
We won't go into the dark details, but chances are you've heard Kristi Noem's name recently as it pertains to the tragic treatment of a family pet. She has been roundly criticized for the story she shared, and her chances of being named the 2024 Republican nominee for vice president reflect the current sentiment toward the South Dakota governor.
Earlier this month, Noem was the +450 betting favorite to be Trump's running mate for November. Now, she's behind South Carolina Senator Tim Scott (+300, an approximately 24% chance of being the vice-presidential nominee) and Tulsi Gabbard (+650, an approximately 13% chance).
