As the 2024 Republican National Convention wraps up, former President Donald Trump remains a huge favorite to win this November's United States presidential election.
Heading into Day 4 of the 2024 RNC on Thursday, Donald Trump's current 2024 presidential election odds are -333, predicting a 62.99% chance of Trump re-claiming the White House.
2024 Presidential Election Odds, Predictions
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -333 | 62.99% |
| Kamala Harris | +400 | 14.89% |
| Joe Biden | +700 | 10.24% |
| Michelle Obama | +2000 | 3.90% |
| Gavin Newsom | +2500 | 3.15% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +4000 | 2.00% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +5000 | 1.61% |
| Hillary Clinton | +6600 | 1.22% |
Odds via BetMGM UK. Chance to win the election and election predictions are based on implied probability with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is not legally allowed in the United States.
Those election odds for Trump are down ever so slightly from his previous odds of -400 shortly after naming JD Vance as his vice presidential running mate, but Trump is still far out in front of the rest of the field. In fact, the biggest development this week is who is next in the election odds behind Trump — and once again, it's Kamala Harris, not Joe Biden, who is expected to be the Democratic nominee in the latest presidential election predictions.
Earlier this week, president Joe Biden was +400 to win reelection, a 16.06% chance of winning the 2024 election, with Harris behind Biden at +1000, a 7.30% chance of winning. As of Thursday morning, however, Harris is back to +450 (a 14.89% chance of victory), ahead of Biden at +700 (a 10.24% chance of victory).
JD Vance Odds to Be President
Curiously, Republican VP nominee JD Vance is not currently on the presidential election odds board at BetMGM. Several sportsbooks around the globe have taken down presidential election odds in the wake of an apparent assassination attempt on Donald Trump last weekend.
Trump vaulted from a -200 favorite to -400 in the hours following that tragic event in Pennsylvania. Vance was +200 to be Trump's running mate at several sportsbooks prior to Monday's announcement.
Moving down the odds board for Democratic nominees, Michelle Obama remains behind Biden and Harris at +2000 (a 3.90% chance of winning the 2024 election), followed by Gavin Newsom at +2500. Newsom had been +2000 earlier this week, with his election odds getting slightly longer as the RNC has rolled on — and as the debate among Democrats as to whether Joe Biden will be their nominee in 2024 rages on.
Earlier this week, California representative Adam Schiff, one of the highest-profile Democrats on the Hill, publicly called for Biden to step aside, which is likely one of the biggest reasons Biden's odds have worsened this week.
Behind Obama and Newsom, Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer remains at +4000, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at +5000. Hillary Clinton is currently +6600.
Odds of Winning Party for 2024 Presidential Election
The Republican vs Democratic presidential election odds are currently off the board at BetMGM, but we will update this story as soon as they become available once again.
