Yes, you read that right — the 2024 United States Presidential Election on November 5 is officially just three weeks away.
And in the latest presidential election odds, Donald Trump remains a solid favorite over Kamala Harris to win the 2024 election. In fact, Trump's odds to win the election have gotten even better over the past 48 hours, as the latest election betting market predicts a nearly 58% chance Trump will re-claim the White House.
Let's break down the latest movement in the presidential election predictions with 21 days to go.
United States Presidential Election Odds
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -154 | 57.70% |
| Kamala Harris | +125 | 42.30% |
Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The "chance to win the election" percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections isn't currently legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States.
Former President Donald Trump's odds to win the election are -154, which gives him a 57.70% chance of victory. Those odds have gotten slightly better from Trump -143 over the weekend.
Vice President Kamala Harris is now a +125 long shot to win the election, which translates to a 42.30% chance of the Democrats retaining the White House. Harris was +110 over the weekend.
Harris most recently surpassed Trump in the election odds markets during their first (and likely only) presidential debate in September, before Trump reclaimed the lead last week despite strong polling numbers for Harris. Trump's surge has largely been based on his increasingly better odds of winning Pennsylvania, which is all but certain to be the pivotal state in the 2024 election.
Harris had first become the betting favorite to win the election back on August 8, shortly before the Democratic National Convention. Trump reclaimed the lead in the odds two weeks later based off of a weak jobs report in the midst of the 2024 DNC, before Harris moved back in front during the aforementioned debate.
Trump has been the favorite since passing Harris last week, with his odds to win the election getting better and better every day.
Presidential Election Predictions
According to the latest odds-based presidential election predictions, the likeliest outcome in November is for Trump to beat Harris with either between 270 and 299 electoral votes or in a more decisive win of 300 to 329 electoral votes. Both of those outcomes currently have a 23.45% chance of happening.
Trump also has a combined 12.1% chance of winning in a relative landslide of more than 329 votes, with an 8.47% chance of between 330 and 359 electoral votes and a 3.63% chance of winning 360+.
Overall, the electoral vote-based election predictions add up to give Trump a 59.0% chance of victory, slightly better than his 57.70% chance based on his -154 odds.
Here are the electoral vote projections for both candidates:
Donald Trump Election Prediction
| Trump Electoral Votes Won | Odds | Percentage Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 179 or Fewer | +2000 | 3.63% |
| 180-209 | +1600 | 4.48% |
| 210-239 | +450 | 13.85% |
| 240-269 | +300 | 19.05% |
| 270-299 | +225 | 23.45% |
| 300-329 | +225 | 23.45% |
| 330-359 | +800 | 8.47% |
| 360+ | +2000 | 3.63% |
Kamala Harris Election Prediction
| Harris Electoral Votes Won | Odds | Percentage Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 179 or Fewer | +2000 | 3.59% |
| 180-209 | +1000 | 6.86% |
| 210-239 | +275 | 20.12% |
| 240-269 | +250 | 21.55% |
| 270-299 | +250 | 21.55% |
| 300-329 | +375 | 15.88% |
| 330-359 | +1000 | 6.86% |
| 360+ | +2000 | 3.59% |
Election Odds for Every State
Only two states have seen election odds movement in the past 36 hours, and both have moved in Trump's favor. The former president is now an even bigger favorite in Georgia at -225, while he has narrowed the gap in Virginia from a +550 underdog to +500.
Here are the current odds and chances to win for all 50 states in the upcoming presidential election:
| State | Odds for Trump | Odds for Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | -10000 | +3300 |
| Alaska | -10000 | +1200 |
| Arizona | -300 | +200 |
| Arkansas | -10000 | +3000 |
| California | +3000 | -10000 |
| Colorado | +1200 | -4000 |
| Connecticut | +2000 | -10000 |
| Delaware | +2500 | -10000 |
| Florida | -1000 | +500 |
| Georgia | -225 | +150 |
| Hawaii | +2500 | -10000 |
| Idaho | -10000 | +2500 |
| Illinois | +2500 | -10000 |
| Indiana | -10000 | +2500 |
| Iowa | -4000 | +1000 |
| Kansas | -10000 | +2500 |
| Kentucky | -10000 | +3000 |
| Louisiana | -10000 | +2500 |
| Maine | +650 | -1800 |
| Maryland | +3300 | -10000 |
| Massachusetts | +3000 | -10000 |
| Michigan | +110 | -133 |
| Minnesota | +800 | -2000 |
| Mississippi | -10000 | +5000 |
| Missouri | -10000 | +2500 |
| Montana | -10000 | +1400 |
| Nebraska | -10000 | +2000 |
| Nevada | +100 | -135 |
| New Hampshire | +800 | -4000 |
| New Jersey | +1400 | -5000 |
| New Mexico | +1200 | -5000 |
| New York | +2500 | -10000 |
| North Carolina | -167 | +120 |
| North Dakota | -10000 | +3300 |
| Ohio | -5000 | +1200 |
| Oklahoma | -10000 | +3300 |
| Oregon | +1600 | -10000 |
| Pennsylvania | -125 | -111 |
| Rhode Island | +2500 | -10000 |
| South Carolina | -10000 | +2500 |
| South Dakota | -10000 | +5000 |
| Tennessee | -10000 | +5000 |
| Texas | -10000 | +4000 |
| Utah | -10000 | +2500 |
| Vermont | +5000 | -10000 |
| Virginia | +500 | -1000 |
| Washington | +2000 | -10000 |
| West Virginia | -10000 | +3300 |
| Wisconsin | +130 | -182 |
| Wyoming | -10000 | +5000 |
State-by-State Odds Movement
- Georgia: From Trump -200 / Harris +140 to Trump -225 / Harris +150
- Virginia: From Harris -1400 / Trump +550 to Harris -1000 / Trump +500
Chance to Win Each State
| State | Trump's Chance to Win | Harris' Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 97.12% | 2.88% |
| Alaska | 92.79% | 7.21% |
| Arizona | 69.23% | 30.77% |
| Arkansas | 96.84% | 3.16% |
| California | 3.16% | 96.84% |
| Colorado | 7.31% | 92.69% |
| Connecticut | 4.59% | 95.41% |
| Delaware | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| Florida | 84.51% | 15.49% |
| Georgia | 63.38% | 36.62% |
| Hawaii | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| Idaho | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Illinois | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| Indiana | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Iowa | 91.48% | 8.52% |
| Kansas | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Kentucky | 96.84% | 3.16% |
| Louisiana | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Maine | 12.34% | 87.66% |
| Maryland | 2.88% | 97.12% |
| Massachusetts | 3.16% | 96.84% |
| Michigan | 45.48% | 54.52% |
| Minnesota | 10.45% | 89.55% |
| Mississippi | 98.06% | 1.94% |
| Missouri | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Montana | 93.69% | 6.31% |
| Nebraska | 95.41% | 4.59% |
| Nevada | 46.38% | 53.62% |
| New Hampshire | 11.50% | 88.50% |
| New Jersey | 6.37% | 93.63% |
| New Mexico | 7.28% | 92.72% |
| New York | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| North Carolina | 57.91% | 42.09% |
| North Dakota | 97.12% | 2.88% |
| Ohio | 92.72% | 7.28% |
| Oklahoma | 97.12% | 2.88% |
| Oregon | 5.61% | 94.39% |
| Pennsylvania | 51.36% | 48.64% |
| Rhode Island | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| South Carolina | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| South Dakota | 98.06% | 1.94% |
| Tennessee | 98.06% | 1.94% |
| Texas | 91.48% | 8.52% |
| Utah | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Vermont | 1.94% | 98.06% |
| Virginia | 15.49% | 84.51% |
| Washington | 4.59% | 95.41% |
| West Virginia | 97.12% | 2.88% |
| Wisconsin | 43.99% | 56.01% |
| Wyoming | 98.06% | 1.94% |
State-by-State Chance to Win Movement
- Georgia: From Trump 61.54% / Harris 38.46% to Trump 63.38% / Harris 36.62%
- Virginia: From Harris 85.85% / Trump 14.15% to Harris 84.51% / Trump 15.49%
Keep in mind the winner of the United States presidential election is decided by which candidate gets the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Electoral College, not who wins the national popular vote. Those electoral votes are allocated on a state-by-state basis, based on the number of members of the House of Representatives, plus the two members of the Senate in each state, with Washington, D.C. also having three electors, for a total of 538 electoral college votes.
That means that 270 electoral votes is the minimum number needed to win the majority of the votes.
