The 2024 presidential election is fast approaching, as we are now less than eight months — 231 days, to be exact — until the general election on November 5, 2024.
In the latest 2024 presidential election odds, Donald Trump remains the betting favorite, although President Joe Biden has narrowed the gap ever so slightly. But the 2024 presidential election predictions still show a better than 50% chance of Trump reclaiming the White House in 2024.
2024 Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -118 | 51.72% |
| Joe Biden | +175 | 34.74% |
| Gavin Newsom | +2500 | 3.67% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +3000 | 3.08% |
| Kamala Harris | +4000 | 2.33% |
| Michelle Obama | +4000 | 2.33% |
| Nikki Haley | +8000 | 1.18% |
| Hillary Clinton | +10000 | 0.95% |
Odds via BetMGM UK. Implied probability is "fair" implied probability, without the vigorish. Click here to learn more about that concept, which is important in betting and using odds to evaluate the chances of something happening. Sportsbooks cannot offer political betting in the United States.
2024 Presidential Election Predictions
Donald Trump Odds to Win Presidency in 2024: -118
Donald Trump Presidential Election Prediction: 51.72%
Donald Trump's chances to win the 2024 election have decreased slightly from last week, moving from -125 to -118. Those odds predict a 51.72% chance Trump wins the presidential election.
Joe Biden Odds to Win Presidency in 2024: +175
Joe Biden Presidential Election Prediction: 34.74%
For the first time in the 2024 presidential election campaign, Joe Biden's odds to win reelection are better than +200. Biden's 34.74% chance to win the election is also the highest his presidential election prediction chances have risen in all of 2023 and 2024.
2024 Election Odds: Winning Party of Presidential Election
| Candidate | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Republicans | -125 | 50.97% |
| Democrats | +100 | 45.87% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +2800 | 3.16% |
The Republicans are the odds-on favorites to win the White House in the 2024 election odds. The most recent presidential election predictions have the Republicans winning the presidential election 50.97% of the time and Donald Trump winning 51.72% of the time.
The Democrats fare far better as a party in the 2024 election odds than Joe Biden does as a candidate. The most recent presidential election predictions have the Democrats winning the presidential election 45.87% of the time, compared to Biden's 34.74% chance of winning in November.
The odds of an independent candidate or any other party winning the 2024 presidential election lines up with the odds of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. winning the election. RFK Jr's 2024 election odds are +3000, a 3.08% chance of winning, while the presidential election predictions have an independent or other party winning 3.16% of the time.
You might also look at those odds and ask "Why is Michelle Obama on these 2024 presidential election predictions?" The answer is fairly simple: Because sportsbooks believe people will bet on her to win the presidential election.
As we have said before, betting on something like a presidential election can serve as a bit of wish fulfillment. And in an election that looks like it will be between two candidates who have seen their share of low approval ratings, a longshot bet on someone like Obama can serve as a bit of comfort for a certain kind of voter.
Donald Trump opened as the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election at +250 in July 2022, followed by Ron DeSantis at +300 and Joe Biden at +550.
