2024 Presidential Election Predictions: Harris Catching Trump, Shapiro Heavy VP Favorite in Latest Election Odds

Odds via BetMGM UK. Chance to win the election and election predictions are based on implied probability with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is not legally allowed in the United States.

The 2024 United States presidential election is the closest it's been in a long, long time.

As of Thursday morning, after former President Donald Trump's appearance at the 2024 NABJ conference, Vice President Kamala Harris has the best odds she's ever had to win the 2024 election. Former President Trump, meanwhile, now has the worst odds to win the election he's had since before the first presidential debate between Trump and President Joe Biden.

Let's dive into the latest presidential election predictions, national polls, win probability, how the election odds have been moving and what that movement means.

Donald Trump Presidential Election Odds

Regardless of how you feel about how former President Trump's interaction with the members of the National Association of Black Journalists went on Wednesday, the fact remains that the latest election betting odds moved significantly in the wake of what many are calling a "contentious" discussion at best.

Former President Donald Trump now has -137 odds to win the 2024 United States presidential election. Trump's -137 election odds equal a 53.13% chance of him winning the White House in November.

The last time Trump's election odds were worse than -140 was mid-June, before the first election debate against President Biden. Trump became a -200 favorite directly after the first presidential debate in June. Since then, his odds to re-claim the White House had hovered around -200 or slightly shorter, even as recently as last Friday.

However, this week has seen the former president's odds shift significantly to their current -137. The change in Trump's odds from -175 last week to -137 this week represents a loss of 5% in the probability that Trump will win the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the presidential election. He had a 58.37% chance last Friday, compared to his current 53.13%.

Kamala Harris Odds for President

Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign continues to get stronger and stronger, at least according to the latest odds-based presidential election predictions and national polls.

Vice President Harris is +110 to win the presidential election, which equals a 43.77% chance of Harris winning the 2024 election. Those are the best odds a Democrat has had to win the 2024 United States election since Donald Trump was found guilty in his hush-money trial in late May, and they are easily the best Harris' odds have been this entire campaign.

According to ABC News' 538, four of five polls conducted since July 26 show Harris with a slight advantage, ranging from 1% to 4%, over Trump in the November election. The fifth poll shows Trump ahead by 1%.

It's been a meteoric rise for Harris, who was as big as a +5000 underdog before the Trump vs. Biden debate in June. When Biden had his awful showing in that debate, Vice President Harris' odds to become president shot up to +1600, and they've only kept getting shorter and shorter since.

But who will join Kamala Harris as her nominee for vice president on the Democratic presidential ticket? We're glad you asked!

Odds are according to BetMGM in the UK.Chance to be the nominee are based on implied probability with the vigorish removed. These markets are not available at sportsbooks in the U.S.

According to a report on Thursday morning, the Harris campaign has narrowed the focus of its vetting process to two potential vice presidential candidates: Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Arizona Senator Mark Kelly.

Currently, Josh Shapiro is a massive favorite at -500 to be the Democratic vice presidential nominee. Shapiro's -500 odds to join Kamala Harris on the 2024 presidential ticket equal a 57.27% chance that he will be the Democratic VP pick.

Interestingly, despite Thursday's report, Kelly is not next on the odds board behind Shapiro. That would be Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, at +600. Kelly is just behind Beshear at +650.

The odds on which party will win the White House in November are very directly aligned with the odds for Donald Trump, Kamala Harris and the rest of the field. With Trump at -137, the Republican Party is also at -137 to win in November. Similarly, with Harris at +110, the Democrats are at +110.

The only difference between party and candidate odds comes with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and the chance of an independent or third-party candidate winning the election. While RFK Jr. is now +10000, an Independent or a third party winning the election is only +5000.

As for the popular vote, the Democrats are now massive -400 favorites, which equals a 73.02% chance of earning the most votes across the country. They were -333 before Thursday's election odds movement. The Republicans are +250 to win the popular vote, a 26.08% chance.

The Dems have won the past four popular votes by at least 2% (4.45% in 2020, 2.09% in 2016, 3.86% in 2012 and 7.27% in 2008) and have won seven of the past eight popular votes overall.

Remember, though, that the United States presidential election is decided by which candidate wins the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Electoral College. Electoral votes are allocated on a state-by-state basis, based on the number of members of the House of Representatives plus the two members of the Senate in each state, with Washington, D.C., also having three electors, for a total of 538 electoral college votes.

That means that 270 electoral votes is the minimum number needed to win the majority of the votes. In the exceedingly rare event of a tie in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives determines the President, with each state having one vote, and the Senate determines the Vice President.