2024 Presidential Election Odds, Predictions: Latest Odds Less Than 100 Days Until Election

Throughout the 2024 United States presidential election campaign, there have almost always been two clear-cut favorites.

Be it the combination of Donald Trump and Joe Biden or, more recently, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the election betting odds have had two names at the very top for the better part of a calendar year.

But along the way, there have also been a few stray potential candidates higher up on the odds board than you might imagine — names like Michelle Obama, Gavin Newsom, and others who might have stepped in if and when Joe Biden stepped aside as the Democratic nominee for president, with odds anywhere from +900 to +2500 or so.

As of Tuesday, though, with just 98 days (that's 14 weeks!) until the 2024 presidential election, all the noise is gone. Everyone except for Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is a 100-1 long shot, meaning the presidential election odds as they stand are the truest representation so far of how the betting market expects November's election to go.

With all that in mind, let's break down the latest odds-based 2024 presidential election predictions, where former president Trump remains a massive favorite, yet Vice President Harris' odds are the best they've ever been.

2024 Presidential Election Predictions: What the Election Odds Mean

Donald Trump Odds for President

Former president Donald Trump is currently a -175 favorite to win the United States presidential election, according to the latest odds. Trump's -175 odds equal a 58.37% chance he will win the November election for president.

Trump became a -200 favorite immediately after the first presidential debate in June, following an awful performance by Biden that precipitated the president dropping out of the race. Since then, his odds to re-claim the White House have stayed just slightly longer than -200, moving to -192 last Tuesday. Then, as the week went on, Trump's odds got a touch worse, moving from -192 to -167 before bouncing back to -182, then moving again to the current -175.

Kamala Harris Odds for President

Vice president Kamala Harris is currently a +138 underdog to win the presidential election. Harris' +138 odds equal a 38.54% chance of winning. Vice President Harris' +138 odds are the best odds a Democrat has had to win the 2024 United States election since Donald Trump was found guilty in his hush-money trial in late May.

Harris had been a substantial long shot as recently as last month, when she was +5000 before the first Trump vs. Biden debate. At that time, those were the same odds to win as Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and only slightly better odds than Nikki Haley, who had dropped out of the race.

However, after Biden's stumbles in the debate and the resulting questions surrounding the Biden-Harris campaign, Harris moved to +1600, then quickly again to +1200. Six days after that debate, she was favored over Biden and trailed only Trump.

The odds on which party will win the White House in November are very closely aligned with the odds for Donald Trump, Kamala Harris and the rest of the field. With Trump -175, the Republican Party is -182 to win in November. Similarly, with Harris +138, the Democrats are +130. And while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is now +10000, an Independent or a third party winning the election is only +5000.

As for the popular vote, the Democrats are massive -333 favorites. The Dems have won the past four popular votes by at least 2% in each (4.45% in 2020, 2.09% in 2016, 3.86% in 2012 and 7.27% in 2008) and have won seven of the past eight popular votes overall.

Remember, though, that the United States presidential election is decided by which candidate wins the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Electoral College. Electoral votes are allocated on a state-by-state basis, based on the number of members of the House of Representatives plus the two members of the Senate in each state, with Washington, D.C., also having three electors, for a total of 538 electoral college votes.

That means that 270 electoral votes is the minimum number needed to win the majority of the votes. In the exceedingly rare event of a tie in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives determines the President, each state having one vote, and the Senate determines the Vice President.

Speaking of Vice President — on the Democratic vice-presidential nominee front, Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro is now a fairly big favorite at -227, after news broken Tuesday night that the Harris campaign was planning a stop with Harris' vice presidential choice next week in Philadelphia. Given that Shapiro is governor of Pennsylvania, you can draw your own conclusions. The betting market certainly is.

Shapiro had opened as the favorite to be Kamala Harris' vice-presidential running mate when Joe Biden first stepped aside, before Arizona Senator Mark Kelly became the favorite shortly thereafter. Kelly had remained the favorite to join Harris on the Democratic ticket through the weekend, until Monday, when Shapiro reclaimed the lead — in the betting odds, at least.

Late on Monday night, North Carolina governor Roy Cooper announced he is removing himself from consideration to be Harris' running mate. Cooper remains on the betting odds at the moment, but he has moved from +400 to +1400 with the news.