Donald Trump took to the stage at the Republican National Convention on Thursday night to officially accept the party's nomination as the Republican candidate for president in the 2024 presidential election.
Trump delivered a speech in which he detailed the recent attempt on his life from his perspective, warned his opponents of what he has in store for them, and largely rallied his base while not doing much to turn down the temperature on American politics.
By the end of the night, Trump's odds to win the 2024 presidential election had gotten slightly worse — but his predicted chance to win the election had improved ever so slightly.
Allow me to explain.
2024 Presidential Election Odds, Predictions
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -286 | 61.33% |
| Kamala Harris | +350 | 18.32% |
| Joe Biden | +900 | 8.24% |
| Michelle Obama | +2000 | 3.67% |
| Gavin Newsom | +2500 | 3.17% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +3300 | 2.42% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +5000 | 1.61% |
| Hillary Clinton | +6600 | 1.23% |
Odds via BetMGM UK. Chance to win the election and election predictions are based on implied probability with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is not legally allowed in the United States.
Donald Trump Odds for President
Donald Trump's odds to win the 2024 presidential election are now -286, which implies a 61.33% chance of the former president winning the election in November. Those -286 odds are slightly worse than the -333 odds Trump had going into Thursday night's speech at the convention.
However, while Trump's odds slightly dipped after his speech Thursday night, his chances to win the election went up just a touch, from 60.97% to 61.33%.
That's due to the continued chaos surrounding Joe Biden's campaign and whether the current president will step aside in the 2024 presidential election.
Shortly before Donald Trump took the stage at the Republican National Convention, Vice President Kamala Harris' odds to win the 2024 presidential election moved from +450 to +350, while Joe Biden remained at +700.
Because Harris' odds got just a bit better without any other odds movement, every other candidate's probability to win the Electoral College had to come down just a little bit. That's how betting markets complement national polls for something like election odds and election predictions — all of the odds are related to each other, so any movement will affect the chances to win the election for every other candidate.
In essence, Harris' improved odds on Thursday moved Trump's chances to win the election down by about .5%, in that moment before Trump's speech in Milwaukee.
On Friday morning, though, president Joe Biden's odds to win the 270 electoral votes necessary for reelection got even worse, as he moved to +900, while Harris remained at +350. That change in Biden's odds was significant enough to boost Trump from a 60.97% chance of winning the election to his current 61.33% chance, despite Trump's odds worsening from -333 to -286.
Joe Biden's Odds for President
President Joe Biden's election odds are currently +900, an 8.24% chance that Biden wins reelection in November.
Earlier this week, president Biden was +400 to win reelection, second in the odds behind Trump with a 16.06% chance of winning the 2024 election. Harris was next behind Biden at +1000, a 7.30% chance of winning. As of Thursday morning, however, Harris had moved back to +450 (a 14.89% chance of victory), ahead of Biden at +700 (a 10.24% chance of victory).
Kamala Harris Odds for President
Vice President Kamala Harris' odds to win the 2024 election are +350. Harris has an 18.32% chance of winning the election based on the 2024 election odds.
JD Vance Odds for President
Republican VP nominee JD Vance is not currently on the presidential election odds board at BetMGM.
Presidential Election Odds: Other Noteworthy Movement
Even with Vice President Kamala Harris the presumed replacement for Joe Biden if Biden drops out, there is at least some part of the betting odds market that believes in Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer.
On Friday morning, Whitmer's presidential election odds moved from +4000 to +3300. As a result, Whitmer's chances to win the election based on the betting odds went from 1.93% to 2.42%.
Also of note: Several sportsbooks around the globe have taken down presidential election odds in the wake of an apparent assassination attempt on Donald Trump last weekend.
