The 2024 presidential election is less than five months away — 239 days, to be exact — and that means that 2024 presidential election predictions are getting sharper and sharper. We know now that a rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is all but a certainty. But will Trump reclaim the White House, or will Biden win reelection?
One of the best ways to predict the presidential election is by looking at the 2024 presidential election odds. And in the latest election odds, Donald Trump is a massive favorite over Joe Biden to win in November.
Donald Trump has a 53.08% chance to win the 2024 presidential election, according to the latest election predictions based on the odds to win the presidency. That puts him substantially ahead of Biden, who has just a 31.85% chance to win the election according to those same odds.
2024 Presidential Election Predictions, Odds
| Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -125 | 53.08% |
| Joe Biden | +200 | 31.85% |
| Gavin Newsom | +1700 | 5.31% |
| Kamala Harris | +2500 | 3.67% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +3300 | 2.81% |
| Michelle Obama | +4000 | 2.33% |
| Nikki Haley | +10000 | 0.95% |
Odds via BetMGM UK. Implied probability is "fair" implied probability, without the vigorish. Click here to learn more about that concept, which is important in betting and using odds to evaluate the chances of something happening. Sportsbooks cannot offer political betting in the United States.
On the surface, that would seem to imply Trump is a 20-point favorite over Biden at the moment, but that doesn't quite tell the full story.
As you can see, the odds of the potential Democratic candidates other than Biden — who are still on the board in case the president were to step aside or otherwise be unable to run for reelection — add up to about 11%.
If we assume their odds will eventually fall to almost zero and add their current probability to Biden's chances to win the election, his chances rise to approximately 43%. That would make Trump a double-digit favorite over Biden currently, but not the massive 20% favorite he appears to be at first glance.
That gap will almost certainly close as we move toward November and the likelihood of any of those Democrats other than Biden becoming the nominee continues to drop, as the Republicans currently have a 4.5-point edge over the Democrats to win the election, with the betting markets predicting a 3% chance of a successful independent or third-party run in the 2024 election.
Winning Party of 2024 Election
| Candidate | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Republicans | -122 | 50.69% |
| Democrats | +100 | 46.12% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +2800 | 3.18% |
There is also the less than 1% chance Nikki Haley wins the election if Trump is unable to run for some reason, plus an approximately 3% chance of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. somehow pulling off a victory in November.
You might also look at those odds and ask "Why is Michelle Obama on these 2024 presidential election predictions?" The answer is fairly simple: Because sportsbooks believe people will bet on her to win the presidential election.
As we have said before, betting on something like a presidential election can serve as a bit of wish fulfillment. And in an election that looks like it will be between two candidates who have seen their share of low approval ratings, a longshot bet on someone like Obama can serve as a bit of comfort for a voter, I suppose.
