2024 Presidential Election Odds, Predictions
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -200 | 53.76% |
| Kamala Harris | +400 | 16.13% |
| Joe Biden | +600 | 11.52% |
| Michelle Obama | +1000 | 7.33% |
| Gavin Newsom | +1400 | 5.38% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +2000 | 3.10% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +5000 | 1.58% |
| Hillary Clinton | +6600 | 1.20% |
Odds via BetMGM UK. Chance to win the election and election predictions are based on implied probability with the vigorish removed.
President Joe Biden was crystal clear on Friday: Despite all the noise and the questions, he is staying in the 2024 presidential race.
Unfortunately for President Biden, the betting markets weren't particularly moved by his announcement. And in the latest 2024 presidential election odds, Biden remains a big underdog to former president Donald Trump. Biden also remains behind his own vice president, Kamala Harris, in the latest presidential election predictions based on the betting odds, which offer a different, if complementary, perspective to national polls when it comes to the race to win the Electoral College.
President Joe Biden was +600 to win the 2024 election before his answer in an ABC interview, where he stated he would only step aside if "the Lord Almighty" came down and told him to do so. After that interview and Biden's tweet, he remained +600. Former president Donald Trump's election odds stayed at -200, with Trump still a massive favorite. Kamala Harris has the next best odds at +400.
Donald Trump Odds for President
Donald Trump is the resounding favorite to win the 2024 presidential election at -200, a 53.76% chance to win the election. Trump moved to -200 after the first presidential election and saw his odds lengthen slightly to -175 last week, but Trump's election odds have solidified at -200 since questions about Biden reached a fever pitch.
Joe Biden Odds for President
President Biden is +600 to win reelection. Biden's presidential election odds equal a 11.52% chance to win the 270 electoral college votes necessary to return to the White House. Biden was +163 (33.31% chance) before the first debate and plummeted to +425 immediately after, before moving to +550.
This is the worst Biden's election odds have been in the entire 2024 election campaign, despite the president's insistence that he will not step aside and will continue to pursue a second term.
Kamala Harris Odds for President
Vice President Kamala Harris remains the candidate with the second-best chance to win the election, according to the odds-based presidential election predictions. Harris is now +400 to win the 2024 election, a 16.13% chance of victory in November. These are Harris' best odds for president of this presidential race. Before the debate, Harris was a +5000 long shot, with a 1.72% chance of winning the presidency. Immediately following that first debate, Harris' odds vaulted all the way to +1200. Earlier this week, her odds got slightly longer at +1600, before moving to +1100 on Tuesday, then to +550 overnight on Wednesday and now to +400.
Michelle Obama Odds for President
Michelle Obama has a 7.33% chance of winning the 2024 presidential election, based on her current +100 odds to become president. In no small part thanks to the popularity of Michelle and her husband, former president Barack Obama, she has been one of the betting favorites to win the electoral college for much of the past year.
Obama's current +1000 odds aren't even the shortest her odds have been this election campaign. Back in March, she was +800 (a 9.46% chance), behind Trump and Biden. By the end of that month, Obama's odds had fallen back to +4000. They started to creep back up in May, moving to +2000, and with Biden's debate disaster, Obama moved to +1600, then to +1400 and now to the current +1000.
Winning Party of 2024 Election Odds
| Candidate | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Republicans | -200 | 60.65% |
| Democrats | +145 | 37.13% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +4000 | 2.22% |
