We are now 12 weeks away from the 2024 United States presidential election on November 5. And at this moment, Vice President Kamala Harris is the biggest favorite to win the election that she has been so far.
On the Republican side of things, Donald Trump's odds are the worst they have been in months, and a former Trump foe is seeing her odds surprisingly improve over the last two days.
Let's get to the latest 2024 presidential election predictions based off of the odds of winning the election for Harris, Trump and more.
2024 Presidential Election Predictions, Odds
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -125 | 51.28% |
| Donald Trump | +100 | 46.15% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +10000 | 0.91% |
| Nikki Haley | +10000 | 0.91% |
| Hillary Clinton | +20000 | 0.37% |
| Michelle Obama | +20000 | 0.37% |
Odds are according to BetMGM in the United Kingdom. The "chance to win the election" percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is not legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States.
Former president Donald Trump's odds did not move on Monday evening after he participated in a live stream on the Twitter/X platform hosted by X owner Elon Musk, but Vice President Kamala Harris' chances to win the election did improve ever so slightly on Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Meanwhile, Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and the last person to challenge Trump in the Republican primaries, saw her odds to win the 2024 election improve this week. The movement is minimal, yet with the field so clearly down to Harris vs Trump, any candidate seeing positive movement is noteworthy.
Let's dive into what the presidential election odds are saying about 2024 presidential election predictions.
Vice President Kamala Harris Presidential Election Odds
Kamala Harris currently has a 51.28% chance to win the 2024 presidential election, given the latest odds-based predictions. Harris' odds of winning the election are -125.
This is the best Vice President Harris' odds of winning the election have been at any point during the 2024 campaign, reflecting her strategic efforts to strengthen her candidacy following President Joe Biden's withdrawal. Harris was -122 on Monday morning and dipped to -120 briefly during the day, before rising to the current -125 after midnight on Monday night/Tuesday morning.
Harris was +1000 less than a month ago, in the days just before President Biden had dropped out. However, in the weeks leading up to Biden's decision, she had moved to as short as +350. Harris was +5000 to win the White House before the first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
Harris' status as the Democratic candidate for president for the 2024 election will be solidified at the Democratic National Convention, which starts next Monday, August 19, as she officially secures a majority of delegates during the convention. According to a report this week, President Joe Biden, former president Barack Obama, and Bill and Hillary Clinton are among the big names scheduled to appear at the DNC.
Former President Donald Trump Presidential Election Odds
Donald Trump currently has a 46.15% chance to win the 2024 presidential election, with odds of +100. Trump had been minus-money (meaning odds shorter than even-money) since late January, when Florida governor Ron DeSantis dropped out of the race. At that time, Trump was -118. That was the first time Trump had become the odds-on favorite to win the election.
Since then, Trump has been as big as a -400 favorite to win the election. He reached those odds shortly after he was shot in Pennsylvania, just over a month ago. When President Joe Biden dropped out of the race a few weeks ago, Trump's odds moved to -225, and they have only gotten longer since. Less than 100 days before the election, he was -175, and the race became a coin flip a week ago.
How Election Odds & Predictions Have Changed The Past Week
One week ago, former president Donald Trump was still the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election, with odds of -118 and a 49.71% chance to win. Vice President Kamala Harris was essentially neck-and-neck with Trump at -110, giving her a 48.10% of winning the election. Harris then became the favorite on Thursday, August 8, as her odds moved to -118, with Trump at -105. Those odds then moved once more over the weekend to Harris -122 and Trump +100, then again on Tuesday to the current Harris -125/Trump +100.
The other noteworthy odds movement in the presidential election predictions centers on Nikki Haley. The former governor of South Carolina has been 250-to-1 for the past two months. But as Trump's odds have slipped, there are at least a few bets coming on Haley to potentially beat out Trump, as she is now 100-to-1.
Ultimately, Haley's odds movement should prove to be inconsequential. But it might be a sign of how people are currently analyzing this presidential race and Trump's current standing in it.
National polls have shown fluctuating support for the candidates, influencing the latest odds and predictions for the 2024 presidential election.
Prediction for Which Party Will Win the 2024 Electoral College
| Party | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | -125 | 52.14% |
| Republicans | +100 | 46.93% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +10000 | 0.93% |
The odds on which party will win the Electoral College, and therefore the White House, are directly aligned with the odds for Trump, Harris and the rest of the field.
With Kamala Harris a -125 favorite to win the election, the Democrats are also -125, with a 52.14% chance of winning the Electoral College. The Republicans' +100 odds to win the election match Donald Trump's +100 odds. And the odds of an Independent or third-party candidate winning the election are 100-to-1, the same as Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Prediction for Winning Party of 2024 Popular Vote
| Party | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | -700 | 79.03% |
| Republicans | +350 | 20.07% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +10000 | 0.90% |
As for the popular vote, the Democrats are now massive -700 favorites, which equals a 79.03% chance of earning the most votes across the country. The Republicans are +350 to win the popular vote, a 20.07% chance.
Remember, though, that the United States presidential election is decided by which candidate wins the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Electoral College.
Electoral votes are allocated on a state-by-state basis, based on the number of members of the House of Representatives, plus the two members of the Senate in each state, with Washington, D.C. also having three electors, for a total of 538 electoral college votes.
That means that 270 electoral votes is the minimum number needed to win the majority of the votes. In the exceedingly rare event of a tie in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives determines the President, with each state having one vote, and the Senate determines the Vice President.
The Democrats have won seven of the past eight popular votes and four straight popular votes, each of those by at least 2%. That margin was 4.45% in 2020, 2.09% in 2016, 3.86% in 2012 and 7.27% in 2008.
