2024 Presidential Election Predictions, Odds Following Vance-Walz VP Debate

Oh, what a difference five weeks can make — and that's been especially true when it comes to the 2024 United States presidential election.

Five weeks ago, Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump were tied in the presidential election odds at -110. And five weeks before that, President Joe Biden had just dropped out of the race for the White House.

Now, with the first debate between vice-presidential candidates JD Vance and Tim Walz in the books, we are just five weeks away from the November 5 general election.

With 35 days to go, Kamala Harris remains the betting favorite (-122) over Donald Trump (-110). Those were the odds before Tuesday night's debate, and they're still the odds afterward.

For more on how Tuesday's VP debate affected November's election, check out Presidential Election Odds, Predictions After JD Vance vs. Tim Walz Debate.

And when you dig a little further into the latest polling and what the election betting odds mean, the current prediction for November is a Harris win.

Here's why.

Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The "chance to win the election" percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is currently not legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States.

Harris has remained a steady favorite over Trump for the past three weeks, hovering right around -120 even as other betting markets swing back and forth between the two candidates. Harris has been as big as a -137 favorite over Trump, but that was back before the Democratic National Convention in August — and Trump actually regained the lead from Harris shortly after the first night of the DNC.

In fact, Trump had been the favorite over Harris as recently as earlier this month, but the vice president moved ahead of the former president during their first debate. The gap between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump did close slightly over the weekend, as Harris moved from a -125 favorite to -122, while Trump went from +100 to -110.

Speaking of debates, Tuesday will mark the first debate between vice-presidential candidates JD Vance and Tim Walz. Harris and Trump have not agreed to a second debate, although Harris has consistently poked and prodded Trump about stepping back up to the lecterns for another 1-on-1.

Vice President Kamala Harris is a -122 favorite to win the 2024 presidential election. Her current odds give her a 51.20% chance of winning the White House in November.

Former President Donald Trump is a -110 underdog to win the upcoming presidential election. His current odds give him a 48.80% chance of winning the election.

As of today, there are 35 days until the 2024 United States general election, which includes the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, as well as Congressional and Senate races around the country.

In the latest average of the national polls, Harris leads Trump 48.5% to 45.7%, a margin of 2.8%. That is not far off from the 2.4% edge she has on Trump based on the latest election betting markets.

Based on the latest polls, odds and projections, the most likely outcome of the November election is for Harris to defeat Trump by winning between 270 and 299 electoral votes.

Let's break it down further with the number that matters most — how many electoral votes each candidate will win and, therefore, who will win the election.

According to the electoral college predictions, the likeliest outcome for Vice President Harris is to win between 270 and 299 electoral votes, at a 24.80% chance, which would mean she'd win the election. The next likeliest outcome, at 22.79%, is for Harris to win between 240 and 269 electoral votes and lose to Donald Trump.

If you add up the probability of any scenario where Harris wins 270 or more electoral votes, Harris projects to have a 61.53% chance of winning the election, much higher than the 51.20% implied probability of her election odds.

That 61.53% chance for Harris to win does align more closely with the aggregate projection at 538.com, where Harris is predicted to win 57 times out of 100.

If Harris is projected to win 270+ electoral votes, that means the likeliest outcome for Trump, according to the electoral college odds, is losing the election — specifically while winning between 240 and 269 votes — at a 24.72% chance.

The next likeliest outcome for Trump in November could go one of two ways, with a 21.43% chance that he wins fewer than 240 electoral votes (but more than 210) and that same 21.43% chance that he beats Harris in a narrow victory of 270 to 299 electoral votes.

According to the aforementioned presidential election forecast, Trump wins 42 times out of 100 in poll-based simulations. There is also a 1% chance in those sims that Trump and Harris tie at 270 electoral votes. In the exceedingly rare event of a tie in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives determines the President, with each state having one vote, and the Senate determines the Vice President.

So what are the odds to win each state? I'm glad you asked, curious reader!

*BetMGM does not have listed odds for Texas. This does not appear to be because the Lone Star State is all but decided, since states that are polling even more heavily for Trump are on the board. We have reached out to MGM to see if they have any comment. 

Eighteen states have seen their presidential election odds shift over the past two weeks.

In Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, New Mexico and Rhode Island, the Democrats extended already commanding leads. The Republicans did the same in Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, South Carolina and Utah.

In Arizona, the GOP increased its lead slightly from -200 to -225. In Georgia, the Republicans moved from -154 to -182. The Republicans also took a much larger lead in Ohio, going from -2000 to -5000, and made some slight progress in their uphill battle in Minnesota, moving from +1400 to +1200.

The Democrats, on the other hand, saw their odds in Florida get slightly worse (+450 to +500), while extending their lead in Michigan from -182 to -225.

Here's how the state-by-state odds translate into percentage chances for each candidate to win each state.

Remember that the United States presidential election is decided by which candidate wins the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Electoral College, not who wins the national popular vote. Electoral votes are allocated on a state-by-state basis, based on the number of members of the House of Representatives, plus the two members of the Senate in each state, with Washington, D.C. also having three electors, for a total of 538 electoral college votes.

That means that 270 electoral votes is the minimum number needed to win the majority of the votes. And with 35 days until the election, things are only going to heat up from here.