With just a little more than 22 days until the 2024 United States presidential election, former President Donald Trump once again has a double-digit advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris, according to the latest presidential election odds.
Trump is currently a -143 favorite to win the election, the biggest favorite he has been since late July, while Harris is once again a plus-money underdog.
If that weren't bad enough news for Harris, the vast majority of swing states are moving in Trump's favor, including Pennsylvania, having gone from a straight-up coinflip to now in Trump's column.
Here's everything you need to know about the latest chances to win the Trump vs. Harris November 5 election, including presidential election predictions for the number of electoral votes each candidate will win and a state-by-state breakdown of all 50 states.
2024 United States Presidential Election Odds
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -143 | 55.85% |
| Kamala Harris | +115 | 44.15% |
Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The "chance to win the election" percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is currently not legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States.
Trump has a 55.85% chance to win the 2024 presidential election, based on his -143 odds. Harris has a 44.15% chance of winning, given her +115 odds.
The last time Trump's odds were this good was back on July 29, with 100 days to go before the election. Joe Biden had dropped out of the race only a week prior, and Harris had yet to narrow her vice-presidential selection down to Tim Walz and Josh Shapiro, let alone select Walz as her running mate.
Even before the first Trump vs. Harris debate, Trump was only a -133 favorite. Vice President Harris then claimed the lead over Trump in the betting markets in the middle of that debate. (And in case you're curious, the VP debate between Walz and JD Vance didn't move the needle at all.)
Last week, though, the former president moved back in front despite strong polling indications for Harris, as Pennsylvania had moved from a slight lean to Harris to a 50/50 tie. Just a few days later, Trump is now the frontrunner in Pennsylvania, but I'll get to that in a second.
First, let's look at the latest predictions for how many electoral votes each candidate could win.
Presidential Election Predictions
Donald Trump Electoral Votes Projection
| Trump Electoral Votes Won | Odds | Percentage Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 179 or Fewer | +2000 | 3.59% |
| 180-209 | +1400 | 5.03% |
| 210-239 | +350 | 16.76% |
| 240-269 | +250 | 21.55% |
| 270-299 | +225 | 23.21% |
| 300-329 | +275 | 20.11% |
| 330-359 | +1000 | 6.86% |
| 360+ | +2500 | 2.90% |
Kamala Harris Electoral Votes Projection
| Harris Electoral Votes Won | Odds | Percentage Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 179 or Fewer | +2500 | 3.07% |
| 180-209 | +1600 | 4.69% |
| 210-239 | +350 | 17.71% |
| 240-269 | +225 | 24.52% |
| 270-299 | +275 | 21.25% |
| 300-329 | +350 | 17.71% |
| 330-359 | +1000 | 7.25% |
| 360+ | +2000 | 3.80% |
According to the electoral college-based odds and predictions, the likeliest outcome in November is for Trump to win the 2024 presidential election with between 270 and 299 electoral votes, a 23.21% probability. Trump also has a 20.11% chance of winning between 300 and 329 electoral votes and a 9.76% chance of winning more than 329 electoral votes.
The sum of the probabilities in all the scenarios that would give Trump 270 or more electoral votes is 53.08%, slightly less than the 55.85% implied probability from his -143 odds to win the election.
Harris' most probable outcome is to claim between 240 and 269 electoral votes and come up short of retaining the White House for the Democrats at a 24.52% chance. Next is the possibility of Harris winning the election with 270 to 299 electoral votes at 21.25%, followed by an even chance of a lopsided loss with 210 to 239 electoral votes or a resounding win with 300 to 329 votes at 17.71%.
Interestingly. the aggregate projection at 538.com still has Harris as a slight favorite, predicting the VP will win the election 53 out of 100 times, with Trump winning the other 47.
In case you're curious, when Trump's odds have been the best so far this year? That would be immediately after he was shot by a would-be assassin back in July, two weeks before the milestone from that same month mentioned above.
Election Odds for Every State
Eight swing states saw odds movement over the weekend. And in seven of those eight states — Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — it was Trump's odds to win that improved. Only in Nevada did Harris see the slightest positive movement, and Nevada is only worth 6 electoral votes in November.
It gets worse for the Democrats, though, as Pennsylvania in particular went from being a 50/50 coinflip to Trump and the Republicans being -125 to win. And as we outlined last week, if Harris loses Pennsylvania, it will be incredibly difficult for her to win the election. She'd almost certainly need to win Arizona — but Trump has moved from -250 to -300 to win the Grand Canyon State.
All the while, Harris' grip on Michigan and Wisconsin got a little looser over the past 48 hours, as she went from -225 in Michigan to -133, which translates to a startling dip from 63.38% to win the state to 54.52%, and from -182 to -154 in Wisconsin.
| State | Odds for Trump | Odds for Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | -10000 | +3300 |
| Alaska | -10000 | +1200 |
| Arizona | -300 | +200 |
| Arkansas | -10000 | +3000 |
| California | +3000 | -10000 |
| Colorado | +1200 | -4000 |
| Connecticut | +2000 | -10000 |
| Delaware | +2500 | -10000 |
| Florida | -1000 | +500 |
| Georgia | -200 | +140 |
| Hawaii | +2500 | -10000 |
| Idaho | -10000 | +2500 |
| Illinois | +2500 | -10000 |
| Indiana | -10000 | +2500 |
| Iowa | -4000 | +1000 |
| Kansas | -10000 | +2500 |
| Kentucky | -10000 | +3000 |
| Louisiana | -10000 | +2500 |
| Maine | +650 | -1800 |
| Maryland | +3300 | -10000 |
| Massachusetts | +3000 | -10000 |
| Michigan | +110 | -133 |
| Minnesota | +800 | -2000 |
| Mississippi | -10000 | +5000 |
| Missouri | -10000 | +2500 |
| Montana | -10000 | +1400 |
| Nebraska | -10000 | +2000 |
| Nevada | +100 | -135 |
| New Hampshire | +800 | -4000 |
| New Jersey | +1400 | -5000 |
| New Mexico | +1200 | -5000 |
| New York | +2500 | -10000 |
| North Carolina | -167 | +120 |
| North Dakota | -10000 | +3300 |
| Ohio | -5000 | +1200 |
| Oklahoma | -10000 | +3000 |
| Oregon | +1600 | -10000 |
| Pennsylvania | -125 | -111 |
| Rhode Island | +2500 | -10000 |
| South Carolina | -10000 | +2500 |
| South Dakota | -10000 | +5000 |
| Tennessee | -10000 | +5000 |
| Texas | -10000 | +4000 |
| Utah | -10000 | +2500 |
| Vermont | +5000 | -10000 |
| Virginia | +650 | -1800 |
| Washington | +2000 | -10000 |
| West Virginia | -10000 | +3300 |
| Wisconsin | +130 | -182 |
| Wyoming | -10000 | +5000 |
State-by-State Odds Movement
- Arizona: From Trump -250 / Harris +175 to -300 / +200
- Michigan: From Harris -225 / Trump +150 to -133 / +110
- Minnesota: From Harris -5000 / Trump +1200 to -2000 / +800
- Nevada: From Harris -137 / Trump -111 to Harris -135 / Trump +100
- New Hampshire: From Harris -4000 / Trump +800 to -2500 / +700
- Pennsylvania: From Harris -118 / Trump -118 to Trump -125 / Harris -111
- Virginia: From Harris -1800 / Trump +650 to -1400 / +550
- Wisconsin: From Harris -182 / Trump +130 to -154 / +110
Chance to Win Each State
| State | Trump's Chance to Win | Harris' Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 97.12% | 2.88% |
| Alaska | 92.79% | 7.21% |
| Arizona | 69.23% | 30.77% |
| Arkansas | 96.84% | 3.16% |
| California | 3.16% | 96.84% |
| Colorado | 7.31% | 92.69% |
| Connecticut | 4.59% | 95.41% |
| Delaware | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| Florida | 84.51% | 15.49% |
| Georgia | 61.54% | 38.46% |
| Hawaii | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| Idaho | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Illinois | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| Indiana | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Iowa | 91.48% | 8.52% |
| Kansas | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Kentucky | 96.84% | 3.16% |
| Louisiana | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Maine | 12.34% | 87.66% |
| Maryland | 2.88% | 97.12% |
| Massachusetts | 3.16% | 96.84% |
| Michigan | 45.48% | 54.52% |
| Minnesota | 10.45% | 89.55% |
| Mississippi | 98.06% | 1.94% |
| Missouri | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Montana | 93.69% | 6.31% |
| Nebraska | 95.41% | 4.59% |
| Nevada | 46.38% | 53.62% |
| New Hampshire | 11.50% | 88.50% |
| New Jersey | 6.37% | 93.63% |
| New Mexico | 7.28% | 92.72% |
| New York | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| North Carolina | 57.91% | 42.09% |
| North Dakota | 97.12% | 2.88% |
| Ohio | 92.72% | 7.28% |
| Oklahoma | 96.84% | 3.16% |
| Oregon | 5.61% | 94.39% |
| Pennsylvania | 51.36% | 48.64% |
| Rhode Island | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| South Carolina | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| South Dakota | 98.06% | 1.94% |
| Tennessee | 98.06% | 1.94% |
| Texas | 91.48% | 8.52% |
| Utah | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Vermont | 1.94% | 98.06% |
| Virginia | 14.15% | 85.85% |
| Washington | 4.59% | 95.41% |
| West Virginia | 97.12% | 2.88% |
| Wisconsin | 43.99% | 56.01% |
| Wyoming | 98.06% | 1.94% |
State-by-State Chance to Win Movement
- Arizona: From Trump 66.27% / Harris 33.73% to 69.23% / 30.77%
- Michigan: From Harris 63.38% / Trump 36.62% to 54.52% / 45.48%
- Minnesota: From Harris 92.72% / Trump 7.28% to 89.55% / 10.45%
- Nevada: From Harris 52.35% / Trump 47.65% to Harris 53.62% / Trump 46.38%
- New Hampshire: From Harris 89.78% / Trump 10.22% to 88.50% / 11.50%
- Pennsylvania: From Harris 50% / Trump 50% to Trump 51.36% / Harris 48.64%
- Virginia: From Harris 87.66% / Trump 12.34% to 85.85% / 14.15%
- Wisconsin: From Harris 59.75% / Trump 40.25% to 56.01% / 43.99%
Remember that the United States presidential election is decided by which candidate wins the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Electoral College, not who wins the national popular vote. (As an aside, the Democrats are currently -600 favorites to win the popular vote, with the Republicans +325). Electoral votes are allocated on a state-by-state basis, based on the number of members of the House of Representatives, plus the two members of the Senate in each state, with Washington, D.C. also having three electors, for a total of 538 electoral college votes.
That means that 270 electoral votes is the minimum number needed to win the majority of the votes. And with 23 days until the election, things are only going to heat up from here.
