The 2024 United States presidential election is just two weeks away. And with 14 days until the November 5 election, former President Donald Trump is a resounding favorite to re-claim the White House — with his lead growing larger nearly every day.
In fact, given the latest presidential election odds, our current projection is for Trump to win over 300 electoral votes, with the possibility of a Republican landslide. Nearly every swing state, including crucial battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, is now in Trump's favor, while Florida and Arizona are so firmly in his grasp that one can hardly call them "swing states" anymore.
Let's get to my updated presidential election predictions and everything you need to know about election betting odds, from the odds on Trump or Harris to win the election to state-by-state analysis for all 50 states and even the odds on which party will win the popular vote.
Presidential Election Odds
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -182 | 60.77% |
| Kamala Harris | +140 | 39.23% |
Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The "chance to win the election" percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections isn't currently legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States.
Donald Trump Odds
Former President Donald Trump is currently a -182 favorite to win the presidential election, which gives him a 60.77% chance of victory. This is the best Trump's odds have been since the days after Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 election.
Kamala Harris Odds
Vice President Kamala Harris is a +140 underdog to win the presidential election, giving her a 39.23% chance of victory. The last time her odds were this long was after former President Barack Obama endorsed Harris as the Democratic nominee.
Presidential Election Predictions
Based on the current odds, our current election prediction is for Donald Trump to win 312 electoral votes and reclaim the White House. That would surpass Joe Biden's 306 electoral votes won in 2020, as well as topping Trump's own 304 electoral votes in 2016. If Trump were to win 312 electoral votes, it would be the most votes won by a Republican since George H.W. Bush's whopping 426 votes in 1988, coming off the back of Ronald Reagan's record 525 electoral votes in 1984.
Trump also has a combined 15.16% chance of winning in a landslide of more than 329 votes, with an 11.79% chance of winning between 330 and 359 electoral votes and a 3.37% chance of winning 360+.
Overall, the electoral vote-based election predictions give Trump a 62.67% chance of victory, slightly better than his 60.77% chance based on his -182 odds.
Here are the electoral vote projections for both candidates:
Donald Trump Election Prediction
| Trump Electoral Votes Won | Odds | Percentage Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 179 or Fewer | +2000 | 3.37% |
| 180-209 | +1000 | 6.43% |
| 210-239 | +500 | 11.79% |
| 240-269 | +350 | 15.73% |
| 270-299 | +225 | 21.78% |
| 300-329 | +175 | 25.73% |
| 330-359 | +500 | 11.79% |
| 360+ | +2000 | 3.37% |
Kamala Harris Election Prediction
| Harris Electoral Votes Won | Odds | Percentage Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 179 or Fewer | +2000 | 3.68% |
| 180-209 | +1000 | 7.03% |
| 210-239 | +200 | 25.77% |
| 240-269 | +275 | 20.61% |
| 270-299 | +300 | 19.32% |
| 300-329 | +500 | 12.88% |
| 330-359 | +1000 | 7.03% |
| 360+ | +2000 | 3.68% |
Election Odds for Every State
Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina all moved in favor of Trump over the past several days, with Nevada flipping from pro-Harris to pro-Trump along the way.
Trump's odds to win in Wisconsin also improved slightly from -118 to -120, but because Harris moved from -105 to -110, the percentage chance of who will win in Wisconsin actually moved in Harris' favor.
| State | Odds for Trump | Odds for Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | -10000 | +3300 |
| Alaska | -10000 | +1200 |
| Arizona | -455 | +275 |
| Arkansas | -10000 | +3000 |
| California | +3000 | -10000 |
| Colorado | +800 | -2500 |
| Connecticut | +2000 | -10000 |
| Delaware | +2500 | -10000 |
| Florida | -2000 | +800 |
| Georgia | -286 | +180 |
| Hawaii | +2500 | -10000 |
| Idaho | -10000 | +2500 |
| Illinois | +2500 | -10000 |
| Indiana | -10000 | +2500 |
| Iowa | -4000 | +1000 |
| Kansas | -10000 | +2500 |
| Kentucky | -10000 | +3000 |
| Louisiana | -10000 | +2500 |
| Maine | +650 | -1800 |
| Maryland | +3300 | -10000 |
| Massachusetts | +3000 | -10000 |
| Michigan | -125 | -105 |
| Minnesota | +800 | -2000 |
| Mississippi | -10000 | +5000 |
| Missouri | -10000 | +2500 |
| Montana | -10000 | +1400 |
| Nebraska | -10000 | +2000 |
| Nevada | -154 | +110 |
| New Hampshire | +550 | -1400 |
| New Jersey | +1400 | -5000 |
| New Mexico | +1200 | -5000 |
| New York | +2500 | -10000 |
| North Carolina | -286 | +180 |
| North Dakota | -10000 | +3300 |
| Ohio | -5000 | +1200 |
| Oklahoma | -10000 | +3300 |
| Oregon | +1600 | -10000 |
| Pennsylvania | -133 | +100 |
| Rhode Island | +2500 | -10000 |
| South Carolina | -10000 | +2500 |
| South Dakota | -10000 | +5000 |
| Tennessee | -10000 | +5000 |
| Texas | -10000 | +4000 |
| Utah | -10000 | +2500 |
| Vermont | +5000 | -10000 |
| Virginia | +500 | -1000 |
| Washington | +2000 | -10000 |
| West Virginia | -10000 | +3300 |
| Wisconsin | -120 | -110 |
| Wyoming | -10000 | +5000 |
State-by-State Odds Movement
- Arizona: From Trump -333 / Harris +225 to Trump -455 / Harris +275
- Florida: From Trump -1800 / Harris +650 to Trump -2000 / Harris +800
- Georgia: From Trump -250 / Harris +175 to Trump -286 / Harris +180
- Michigan: From Trump -118 / Harris -105 to Trump -125 / Harris -105
- Nevada: From Harris -125 / Trump -111 to Trump -154 / Trump -110
- North Carolina: From Trump -225 / Harris +150 to Trump -286 / Harris +180
- Wisconsin: From Trump -118 / Harris -105 to Trump -120 / Harris -110
Chance to Win Each State
| State | Trump's Chance to Win | Harris' Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 97.12% | 2.88% |
| Alaska | 92.79% | 7.21% |
| Arizona | 75.46% | 24.64% |
| Arkansas | 96.84% | 3.16% |
| California | 3.16% | 96.84% |
| Colorado | 10.36% | 89.64% |
| Connecticut | 4.59% | 95.41% |
| Delaware | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| Florida | 89.55% | 10.45% |
| Georgia | 67.48% | 32.52% |
| Hawaii | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| Idaho | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Illinois | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| Indiana | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Iowa | 91.48% | 8.52% |
| Kansas | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Kentucky | 96.84% | 3.16% |
| Louisiana | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Maine | 12.34% | 87.66% |
| Maryland | 2.88% | 97.12% |
| Massachusetts | 3.16% | 96.84% |
| Michigan | 52.03% | 47.97% |
| Minnesota | 10.45% | 89.55% |
| Mississippi | 98.06% | 1.94% |
| Missouri | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Montana | 93.69% | 6.31% |
| Nebraska | 95.41% | 4.59% |
| Nevada | 53.65% | 46.35% |
| New Hampshire | 14.15% | 85.85% |
| New Jersey | 6.37% | 93.63% |
| New Mexico | 10.36% | 89.64% |
| New York | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| North Carolina | 67.48% | 32.52% |
| North Dakota | 97.12% | 2.88% |
| Ohio | 92.72% | 7.28% |
| Oklahoma | 97.12% | 2.88% |
| Oregon | 5.61% | 94.39% |
| Pennsylvania | 53.31% | 46.69% |
| Rhode Island | 3.74% | 96.26% |
| South Carolina | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| South Dakota | 98.06% | 1.94% |
| Tennessee | 98.06% | 1.94% |
| Texas | 91.48% | 8.52% |
| Utah | 96.26% | 3.74% |
| Vermont | 1.94% | 98.06% |
| Virginia | 15.49% | 84.51% |
| Washington | 4.59% | 95.41% |
| West Virginia | 97.12% | 2.88% |
| Wisconsin | 50.90% | 49.10% |
| Wyoming | 98.06% | 1.94% |
State-by-State Chance to Win Movement
- Arizona: From Trump 71.42% / Harris 28.58% to Trump 75.46% / Harris 24.54%
- Florida: From Trump 87.66% /Harris 12.34% to Trump 89.55% /Harris 10.45%
- Georgia: From Trump 66.27% / Harris 33.73% to Trump 67.48% / Harris 32.52%
- Michigan: From Trump 51.38% / Harris 48.62% to Trump 52.03% / Harris 47.97%
- Nevada: From Harris 51.36% / Trump 48.64% to Trump 53.65% / Harris 46.35%
- North Carolina: From Trump 53.31% / Harris 46.69% to Trump 67.48% / Harris 32.52%
- Wisconsin: From Trump 51.38% / Harris 48.62% to Trump 50.90% / Harris 49.10%
Which Party Will Win the Presidential Election
| Party | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Republicans | -182 | 60.21% |
| Democrats | +140 | 38.87% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +10000 | 0.92% |
If we zoom out from the candidates and just look at the Democratic and Republican parties, the odds on who will win the White House in November effectively remain the same. The Republicans are -182, just like Donald Trump, while the Democrats are +140, just like Kamala Harris.
The only difference between these odds and the straight-up Trump vs. Harris odds is the inclusion of the chance of an Independent or third-party candidate winning the election at 100-to-1 odds.
Odds for Winning Party of 2024 Popular Vote
| Party | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | -300 | 68.60% |
| Republicans | +200 | 30.49% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +10000 | 0.91% |
The Democrats are still heavy favorites to win the popular vote, but their -300 odds are much lower than the -700 odds Harris & Co. enjoyed shortly before the 2024 Democratic National Convention.
Days Until Presidential Election, Key Dates and Events to Watch
There are 14 days until the 2024 United States Presidential Election on Nov. 5. Many states are already allowing early voting and voting by mail.
Counting ballots will take weeks in some states, and the results must be certified by Congress, a process that can be contentious. The new president will be sworn into office on the steps of the Capitol building in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 20, marking the culmination of this intense electoral process.
Keep in mind the winner of the United States presidential election is decided by which candidate gets the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Electoral College, not who wins the national popular vote. Those electoral votes are allocated on a state-by-state basis, based on the number of members of the House of Representatives, plus the two members of the Senate in each state, with Washington, D.C., also having three electors, for a total of 538 electoral college votes.
That means that 270 electoral votes is the minimum number needed to win the majority of the votes.
