2024 Presidential Election Odds, Predictions: Harris Closes Gap on Trump

If Donald Trump hears footsteps behind him, it's only the sound of Kamala Harris catching up in the 2024 United States presidential election odds.

After narrowing to less than 10% late last week, the gap between former President Trump and Vice President Harris is now just over 6%, according to those same election betting odds.

It has been over three months since the margin between Trump — who has been the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election more or less since odds were first posted in July 2022 — and the top Democratic candidate has been this slim.

Let's get to the latest 2024 election odds, what the odds tell us about presidential predictions, how the odds are moving and more.

Vice President Kamala Harris Now Even-Money in Latest Election Odds

Could we be on the verge of seeing the Vice President move to minus-odds in the presidential election odds?

As of Monday afternoon, Vice President Harris is now even-money (+100) to win the 2024 presidential election, which gives her a 45.27% chance to win the election in November.

As has been the case with every election betting odds update over the past month, this is now the best Harris' presidential election odds have been in the 2024 campaign.

Harris was +110 late last week. And keep in mind, just 37 days ago, in the moments before the first debate between former president Trump and current President Joe Biden, she was as big as a +5000 underdog. Now, it wouldn't be out of the question to see Vice President Harris become the betting favorite before November's election.

Former President Donald Trump's Election Odds Worst They've Been in Weeks

The flip side of Harris' increasingly shorter odds is Trump's relative tumble down the odds board.

Currently, former President Trump is a -133 favorite to win the 2024 presidential election, according to the updated presidential election odds. That gives Trump a 51.68% chance of reclaiming the White House.

Trump's odds fell somewhat precipitously last week after his appearance on a panel at an NABJ conference. He was -175 before that event and came out of it at -137 before moving again to -133 over the weekend.

As you'd likely imagine, this is the worst former president Trump's election odds have been in a while — but perhaps not as long as you think. Trump was -120 as recently as mid-May, when President Biden was gamely talking a bit of trash to the Republican nominee about a potential debate.

We all know how that went for Biden, let alone the roller-coaster that debate unleashed since.

2024 Presidential Election Predictions: What the Polls Are Saying

You shouldn't put too much stock in any one poll. Heck, sometimes it feels difficult to put your faith in any of them, or even in any aggregation of various polls.

But along with presidential election odds, national polls and state polls, particularly in key battleground states, are some of the only real information we have when it comes to predicting a race like the general election.

So, when you see something like a CBS poll with Harris in front of Trump, it's worth noting. (The "full test" results are results with more than just Trump and Harris on a hypothetical ballot — so, say, including someone like Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., whom I'll get to in a moment).

Meanwhile, whether you love him, hate him or are indifferent toward him, Nate Silver is undoubtedly one of the most well-known names in the presidential election predictions space, and he also sees quite a bit of momentum for Vice President Harris.

I'll let his picture tell the story, as it shows Harris surpassing Trump in how each candidate's chances of winning the election have changed over time.

Other Presidential Election Predictions, Presidential Election Odds News

No Other Names In the Running, According to Odds (Sorry, RFK Jr.)

Since I briefly mentioned RFK Jr. above, I'd like to call out that he really isn't a factor in the latest presidential election odds. No one beyond Trump and Harris is, really, with every other potential name on the list sitting at 100-1 or worse.

When President Biden withdrew from the 2024 election just two weeks ago — and yes, it really has been only two weeks since that bombshell news — names like Michelle Obama (+1600), Gavin Newsom (+1600), Gretchen Whitmer (+3300) and even Hillary Clinton (+5000) were still within shouting distance of the two current frontrunners.

But there's no pretending anymore. We know that, barring something completely and utterly extraordinary, the Nov. 5 presidential election will be between Trump and Harris.

What we don't know yet is Harris' running mate.

Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee Odds Are Hard to Find, But Shapiro's a Massive Favorite After Monday Report

Odds are according to European sportsbook Betfair.Chance to be the nominee are based on implied probability with the vigorish removed. These markets are not available at sportsbooks in the U.S.

Pennyslvania governor Josh Shapiro has seen his lead increase substantially from -200 to -417 after Reuters reported that the Vice Presidential decision was down to Shapiro and Minnesota governor Tim Walz.

That's an increase in implied probability of just under 5%.

In a corresponding move, Walz's odds fell from +300 to +250, increasing his probability by 0.58%.

Arizona senator Mark Kelly saw his odds fall from +700 to +1700 because of the update. Curiously, Kentucky governor Andy Beshear and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg had their odds increase. Beshear's odds are up from +1500 to +1100 since Monday morning, while Buttigieg has seen his odds go from +2500 to +2000.

Last week saw a flurry of head-fakes, half-baked leaks, and loosely sourced reports about who will join Harris on the 2024 Democratic ticket. Shapiro is canceling events! Mark Kelly is deleting tweets! Tim Walz has Bernie Sanders' support! And with all of the noise, some sportsbooks, such as BetMGM UK, currently do not have live 2024 Democratic vice president odds.

Yet if you look, you can still find election betting odds markets for the Democratic VP, including at bet365 UK and European sportsbook Betfair, which will be our source today.

According to multiple reports, Vice President Harris is expected to announce her running mate before a campaign event on Tuesday, Aug. 6.

Shapiro is a popular, relatively bipartisan leaders of crucial swing states — states that will change the tide of the November election.

Kelly is a former astronaut and husband of Gabby Giffords, who was the victim of gun violence when she served in Congress.

Walz, the two-term governor of Minnesota, is also the chair of the Democratic Governors Association, which is actively involved in fundraising and campaigning for Democratic gubernatorial candidates.

Winning Party of the Electoral College, Popular Vote: Tale of Two Systems

Finally, let's take a look at the candidate-agnostic odds for which party will win in November.

The odds on which party will win the Electoral College, and therefore the White House, are very directly aligned with the odds for Trump, Harris and the rest of the field.

With Trump at -133, the Republican Party is also at -133 to win in November. Similarly, with Harris at +100, the Democrats are at +100.

The current presidential election odds give the Republicans a 52.82% chance of winning in November and the Democrats a 46.27% chance, with an Independent or third-party candidate given a 0.92% chance.

As for the popular vote, the Democrats are now massive -400 favorites, which equals a 73.02% chance of earning the most votes across the country. They were -333 early last week. The Republicans are +250 to win the popular vote, a 26.08% chance.

The Dems have won the past four popular votes by at least 2% (4.45% in 2020, 2.09% in 2016, 3.86% in 2012 and 7.27% in 2008) and have won seven of the past eight popular votes overall.

Remember, though, that the United States presidential election is decided by which candidate wins the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Electoral College.

Electoral votes are allocated on a state-by-state basis, based on the number of members of the House of Representatives, plus the two members of the Senate in each state, with Washington, D.C. also having three electors, for a total of 538 electoral college votes.

That means that 270 electoral votes is the minimum number needed to win the majority of the votes. In the exceedingly rare event of a tie in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives determines the President, with each state having one vote, and the Senate determines the Vice President.