The 2024 United States presidential election is just 38 days away. And with just over five weeks remaining until November 5, the election odds are on the move once again.
Vice President Kamala Harris (-122) remains the betting favorite over former President Donald Trump (-110), as she has been since the first debate between the two candidates. Let's dive into all that and more in the latest, updated presidential election odds after the latest polls.
United States Presidential Election Odds
| Presidential Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -122 | 51.20% |
| Donald Trump | -110 | 48.80% |
Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The "chance to win the election" percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is currently not legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States.
The gap between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump closed over the weekend, as Harris moved from a -125 favorite to -122. Trump, on the other hand, went from +100 to -110. It's somewhat striking that the former president moved back to minus-money, even if it is as the betting underdog against Harris still.
The changes in the election betting odds with less than 40 days before the election would seem to indicate that the market is getting tighter and tighter between these two candidates.
Kamala Harris' Odds to Win Election
At her current -122 odds, Vice President Harris has a 51.20% chance of winning the United States presidency. That would give Harris a 2.4% edge over Trump in the 2024 presidential predictions, compared to her 2.9% advantage (48.6% to 45.7%) in the latest 538 national polling averages. That edge is down from 5.2% earlier this week.
Harris was -120 to win the election last week and has been as big as a -133 favorite in the past 10 days, as the odds continue to fluctuate based on the latest election polling and more.
Predicting How Many Electoral Votes Harris Will Win
| Electoral Votes Won | Odds | Percentage Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 179 or Fewer | +3300 | 2.37% |
| 180-209 | +2500 | 3.10% |
| 210-239 | +600 | 11.51% |
| 240-269 | +275 | 21.49% |
| 270-299 | +225 | 24.80% |
| 300-329 | +250 | 23.03% |
| 330-359 | +800 | 8.96% |
| 360+ | +1600 | 4.74% |
According to the electoral college predictions, the likeliest outcome for Vice President Harris is to win the election with between 270 and 299 electoral votes, at a 24.80% chance.
The next likeliest outcome at 22.79% is for Harris to win between 240 and 269 electoral votes and lose to Donald Trump.
Interestingly, the sum of the percentages of any outcome where Harris wins the election is 62%, far higher than the implied probability of her -122 election odds.
Donald Trump's Odds to Win Election
Trump is currently a small -110 underdog to win the presidency, which gives him a 48.80% chance of re-claiming the White House in November, according to the latest 2024 election betting odds.
Based on all of the polling and the election odds, it would seem that at this moment, Trump's clearest path toward winning the November 5 election is to beat Harris in Pennsylvania while holding Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
Predicting How Many Electoral Votes Trump Will Win
| Electoral Votes Won | Odds | Percentage Chance |
|---|---|---|
| 179 or Fewer | +2000 | 3.83% |
| 180-209 | +1200 | 6.18% |
| 210-239 | +275 | 21.43% |
| 240-269 | +225 | 24.72% |
| 270-299 | +275 | 21.43% |
| 300-329 | +475 | 13.97% |
| 330-359 | +1400 | 5.36% |
| 360+ | +2500 | 3.09% |
The likeliest outcome for Trump, according to the electoral college odds, is losing the election while winning between 240 and 269 votes, at a 24.72% chance.
The next likeliest outcome is for Trump is a tie between two different paths: a 21.43% chance he only wins between 210 and 239 electoral votes (meaning Harris wins 299 or more), and a 21.43% chance he tallies between 270 and 299 electoral votes and wins the election.
Based on the presidential election odds, the most likely presidential election prediction is for Harris to defeat Trump by winning between 270 and 299 electoral votes.
Which Party Will Win the Presidential Election
| Party | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Democrats | -122 | 50.73% |
| Republicans | -110 | 48.35% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +10000 | 0.91% |
Lastly, if we zoom out from the candidates and just look at the Democratic and Republican parties, the odds on who will win the White House in November effectively remain the same.
Like Harris, the Democrats are -122 favorites. Like Trump, the Republicans are -110 underdogs.
For good measure, the listed betting odds of an Independent or third-party candidate winning are 100-to-1, although the true chance of such an outcome is probably far, far less likely.
Keep in mind that the United States presidential election is decided by which candidate wins the 270 votes in the Electoral College, not who wins the national popular vote. Electoral votes are allocated on a state-by-state basis, based on the state's number of members of the House of Representatives, plus the two members of the Senate in each state.
A state that has four members in the House would therefore have six electoral votes (because the state has two Senators + four Representatives). Washington, D.C. also has three electors, for a total of 538 electoral college votes.
That's why 270 electoral votes is the minimum number needed to win the majority of the votes, as it's half of the available votes (269, which would mean a tie if both candidates got that many) plus one.
In the exceedingly rare event of a tie in the Electoral College, the House of Representatives determines the President, with each state having one vote, and the Senate determines the Vice President.
