Arizona is a key battleground state for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and Donald Trump is favored to take it home. After the former Republican stronghold flipped blue in helping Joe Biden win election in 2020, Trump is hoping to turn the state back in his favor to help him reclaim the presidency.
Arizona Presidential Election Odds
| Source | Trump | Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 74% | 26% |
| BetMGM | 74% | 26% |
Last updated Monday, 10 p.m. ET
As of Monday night, Trump holds the projected lead at both prediction markets and at BetMGM UK.
Arizona Election Prediction & Forecast
- 538: Trump +2.5%, Trump 70% to win
- Split Ticket: Trump +2.3, Trump 63% to win
- 24cast: Harris +1.2%, Harris 60% to win
Registered Republicans lead the early vote in Arizona by 196K votes out of 2.337 million cast. That’s an 8.4% advantage. However, by turnout it’s a much more narrow margin, as Republicans have only a 1.3% turnout advantage.
Arizona is going to hinge on how independents split, and how much of the young vote shows up on election day. In 2020, voters age 65+ made up 31% of the Arizona voting total. However, they currently make up 39.5% of all votes.
The election day vote will be younger and more Democratic than the early vote. The question is how much more? Arizona could be very close.
To illustrate how close, let’s turn to the models.
The classic polling-based models like FiveThirtyEight and Split Ticket make Trump in the neighborhood of a 2-to-1 favorite.
However, the machine learning model at 24cast.org used by the Brown Political Review goes beyond these classic methodologies and uses a random forest model. The model has over 100 input variables and spits out a projected margin and distribution of that margin.
They have this race as the closest predicted margin of all 50 states.
I think it’s also possible to sense a theme if you check out my other state previews, in that early voting data and district level polling is suggesting statewide and national polling is more likely underestimating Harris in this cycle.
If that’s the case, the Trump +2.4% average margin from FiveThirtyEight and Split Ticket may shift more toward Harris, making this another close race.
Like Georgia, I think we should back Arizona at anything under 10% as the state with the closest final margin.
Verdict:Bet Arizona as state with closest margin at anything less than 10% implied odds.
If you do bet at BetMGM, be sure to use our BetMGM bonus code ACTION for$1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win.
Election Odds in Other Key States
- Florida: Trump is a huge favorite in the Sunshine State, and a Harris win would be the result of a major polling miss nationally.
- Georgia: There's a lot to still be decided in Georgia, a red state shifting blue over the last eight years, with turnout in both red and blue counties already up from 2020 in early voting.
- Iowa: Trump dropped from a massive favorite to a slightly less massive favorite over the weekend thanks to some prominent pollsters releasing their data. There's still some betting value on the board, but you may have to lay a steep price.
- Michigan: Joe Biden took Michigan in 2020 and Harris seems poised for another victory here as a slight favorite entering the day.
- Nevada: Mail-in ballots in Clark County (where Las Vegas is located) will play a huge role in NV — is it enough to give the edge to Harris, who is a small underdog entering Tuesday?
- New Hampshire: Harris is a big favorite here, but in the event of a broad polling miss, there's some betting value on a prop here.
- North Carolina: Trump is favored in the Tar Heel State, but should he be? This race will likely come down to which side goes to the independent voters.
- Ohio: Trump is a massive favorite in Ohio, which has gone red the last two elections after going blue for Barack Obama the previous two.
- Pennsylvania: The most important state in the election, PA is close to 50/50 entering Election Day.
- Texas: Trump is a huge favorite in Texas and only a big polling miss would create any changes there.
- Wisconsin: Joe Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 by just more than 20,000 votes, and WI is setting up for another razor-thin race in 2024.
