As candidates endorsed by former President Donald Trump performed poorly in midterm elections relative to expectations this week, Trump's presidential election odds for 2024 have dropped precipitously.
While Trump had been the odds-on betting favorite to win the 2024 presidential election across the market — over incumbent President Joe Biden — he has since been usurped by Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who steamrolled into a decisive gubernatorial victory on Tuesday night.
The most staggering thing about DeSantis' victory: Miami-Dade County, which had voted +29% for Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. On Tuesday, DeSantis took down Charlie Crist, a Democrat, by 10 points in the county.
By contrast, Trump lost Florida's most populous county to President Biden by seven points in 2020. Miami-Dade hasn't voted for a Republican president since George H. W. Bush in 1988.
2024 Presidential Election Odds
Odds according to bet365 (only valid in the UK) as of Nov. 10
Odds according to PredictIt (the only way to legally bet on political races in the United States) as of Nov. 10
DeSantis' momentum has been amplified by Trump's inability to adequately use his profile to help other candidates win elections. A total of 14 Trump-endorsed candidates lost in the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio, while a 15th competing for a U.S. Senate seat representing Arizona looks poised to fall, too.
A 16th — Herschel Walker in Georgia — is headed for a December runoff election. With 99% of the vote counted, Walker is losing by 0.9%. But Sen. Raphael Warnock won't surpass the 50% threshold needed by Georgia law to win the election, triggering a runoff.
Walker had been embroiled by issues throughout his campaign about his fitness for office. The former Georgia running back fumbled often with hard to discern and meandering answers to policy questions. Domestic issues with a previous wife were resurfaced. His hypocrisy about abortion rights were illuminated.
Mehmet Oz fell hard in his race for a U.S. Senate seat representing Pennsylvania amid similar issues regarding questions about his fitness for office. In a state that narrowly voted for Trump in 2020, most every county voted more, in proportion, for opponent John Fetterman than they did for President Biden.
Trump's foibles could cost the Republicans the Senate in the end. The GOP had been roughly -455 across the market to retake a Senate majority this election cycle, when Democrats had been forced to defend their regular strongholds and win three out of four key battleground states.
As it stands on Tuesday, the Democrats' odds of maintaining control of the Senate is -670 at PredictIt.
With votes yet to be finalized, the Democrats would need to solidify their victory in Arizona and win one of Nevada or Georgia in order to maintain their majority.
In another shock, Trump acolyte Lauren Boebert — representing Colorado's third congressional district — is mired in a neck-and-neck race with her Democratic competitor, Adam Frisch, in an election she was expected to win 97% of the time, according to FiveThirtyEight. That translates to odds of roughly -3250.
Boebert has been one of the most vocal Republicans in Congress in supporting false claims of election fraud and has a history of supporting conspiracy theories.
Her race is likely headed for a recount, which is triggered in Colorado elections decided by 0.5% or less.
Meanwhile, President Biden's odds to win reelection improved in lockstep with Trump's demise.
Democrats up and down ballot over-performed polling this week. The apparent reaffirmation of the Biden administration and related policies could increase the chances the President will run for reelection in 2024.
