Six electoral college votes may not seem like they could be pivotal in the race for the White House, but Nevada has proven to be a crucial state for any future president to win.
In the last 100 years, there are only two occasions in which the nominee who won Nevada did not win the overall election. One of those was in 2016, as Nevadans sided with Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. 2004 was the last time that Nevada favored the Republican candidate, but will we see a reversal of that trend in 2024?
Trump will be hoping so, but what do the election odds and polling projections say about his chances?
Nevada Trump vs. Harris Election Odds
| Presidential Candidate | Nevada Election Odds | Implied Chance to Win Nevada |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -125 | 51.5% |
| Donald Trump | -110 | 48.5% |
Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is currently not legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States, although trades involving election markets are under court review.
Harris currently maintains a slight edge in the betting market at BetMGM for the state of Nevada. The odds indicate that she holds a 51.5% chance to win a state that Biden won by 2.4% in 2020. Trump has not won Nevada in either of his attempts thus far, but at 48.5%, it would appear that he has a chance to do so this time around.
Nevada Polling Projections
According to Nate Silver's polling assessment at Silver Bulletin, Harris currently holds a one-point lead in Nevada. At FiveThirtyEight, Harris is at +0.6.
If Harris is to secure the election on a general level, it is important that she wins Nevada, making this an interesting state to follow in the coming weeks.
