The 2024 presidential election will all but certainly be a rematch of 2020 between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
And in the latest 2024 presidential election odds, Donald Trump (-125) is the resounding favorite to win the presidency in November. After Nikki Haley's departure from the presidential campaign, Trump has a 51.38% chance to win the presidential election. Incumbent Joe Biden has a 30.83% chance to win the election and odds of +200.
That's based on the presidential election predictions from the updated 2024 presidential election odds.
This week's Super Tuesday primaries, which Trump all but swept, marked the first time Trump's chances to win the 2024 presidential election surpassed 50%; he entered the week with a 43% chance of winning the election.
From now until the 2024 presidential election on November 5, we will be updating the latest odds and chances to win every day. Before we dive further into the upcoming election, though, let's take a look at the current lines.
Presidential Election Odds, Predictions | Trump Heavy Favorite Over Biden
| Candidate | Election Odds | Chance to Win Election |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -125 | 51.38% |
| Joe Biden | +200 | 30.83% |
| Gavin Newsom | +900 | 9.25% |
| Kamala Harris | +2500 | 3.56% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +3400 | 2.64% |
| Michelle Obama | +4000 | 2.26% |
| Nikki Haley | +100000 | 0.09% |
Odds via BetMGM UK. Implied probability is "fair" implied probability, without the vigorish. Click here to learn more about that concept, which is important in betting and using odds to evaluate the chances of something happening. Sportsbooks cannot offer political betting in the United States.
Presidential Election Predictions: Could Biden Step Aside?
Although it's hard to see a scenario where current president Biden is not the Democratic nominee for president, he is only -500 in the latest Democratic presidential nominee odds. That means there is a 26% chance, according to the betting markets, that Biden does not run for reelection.
And in his latest video on 2024 presidential election predictions, our Mike Calabrese explained that there is precedent for such a move — but that it's been a long time since we've seen a president not run again.
"There remains speculation that President Biden could step aside this summer for another candidate. The precedent for something like this is fairly ancient, with presidents like James K. Polk, Rutherford B. Hayes, Calvin Coolidge and, most recently in 1968, Lyndon Johnson not opting to see a second elected term.
"But like LBJ, Biden has health concerns at 81, an approval rating below 40% and legitimate candidates waiting in the wings to replace him."
2024 Democratic Nominee Odds
| Candidate | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | -500 | 73.99% |
| Gavin Newsom | +1000 | 8.07% |
| Michelle Obama | +1000 | 8.07% |
| Kamala Harris | +1400 | 5.92% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +5000 | 1.74% |
| Hillary Clinton | +6600 | 1.33% |
| Dean Phillips | +1000 | 0.88% |
Wait, why is Michelle Obama on these lists?
Obama's presence on these odds indicates just how wild betting on presidential elections can be. The odds at the top for the favorites tend to be very accurate. But there are always a few options further down the board that are there simply to draw in people's money on longshots they think would be fun or that would serve as wish fulfillment. Obama qualifies as one of those. Other longshot names that can be found on certain presidential election odds markets include Joe Rogan at +25000 and The Rock at +50000.
Winning Party of 2024 Election
| Candidate | Odds | Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Republicans | -122 | 50.69% |
| Democrats | +100 | 46.12% |
| Independent/Any Other Party | +2800 | 3.18% |
Trump has been the betting favorite to win the 2024 presidential election for almost the entire time since odds first opened in July 2022. At that time, Trump was +250 to win. The only time that Trump's chances to win the election have been worse than Biden's in the past 20 months is when he was indicted by the federal government on four criminal charges related to overturning the 2020 presidential election. That happened in August, but by the time of the second Republican presidential debate in September, Trump had become the favorite once again.
While Haley has removed herself from the race, she is still on the board as of Wednesday morning — but her odds have now moved to 1000-1. This is likely a reflection of her potential front-runner status for the Republican party if Trump were to be unable to run in November for whatever reason.
Lastly, while Kamala Harris is the presumptive vice presidential candidate for the Democrats, the race to be Donald Trump's 2024 Republican vice presidential running mate is wide open, with no potential nominee having odds of better than +350.
2024 Republican Vice Presidential Candidate Odds
| Candidate | Odds | Chance to Be Nominee |
|---|---|---|
| Kristi Noem | +350 | 17.26% |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | +450 | 14.12% |
| Elise Stefanik | +650 | 10.36% |
| Tim Scott | +650 | 10.36% |
| Ben Carson | +1000 | 7.06% |
| Tulsi Gabbard | +1200 | 5.97% |
| Doug Burgum | +1400 | 5.18% |
| Nikki Haley | +1400 | 5.18% |
| Tucker Carlson | +2000 | 3.70% |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | +2500 | 2.99% |
| Tudor Dixon | +2500 | 2.99% |
| Ron DeSantis | +3300 | 2.28% |
| Sean Hannity | +4000 | 1.89% |
| Chris Christie | +5000 | 1.52% |
| Glenn Youngkin | +5000 | 1.52% |
| Lauren Boebert | +5000 | 1.52% |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | +5000 | 1.52% |
| Mike Pence | +5000 | 1.52% |
| Mike Pompeo | +5000 | 1.52% |
| Ted Cruz | +5000 | 1.52% |
Super Tuesday Results
Super Tuesday Republican Results
Primaries:
- Alabama — Won by Donald Trump
- Arkansas — Won by Donald Trump
- California — Won by Donald Trump
- Colorado — Won by Donald Trump
- Maine — Won by Donald Trump
- Massachusetts — Won by Donald Trump
- Minnesota — Won by Donald Trump
- North Carolina — Won by Donald Trump
- Oklahoma — Won by Donald Trump
- Tennessee — Won by Donald Trump
- Texas — Won by Donald Trump
- Vermont — Won by Nikki Haley
- Virginia — Won by Donald Trump
Caucuses:
- Alaska — Won by Donald Trump
- Utah — Won by Donald Trump
On March 11, the Tar Heel State will launch North Carolina sports betting fully online. Pre-register today.
Super Tuesday Democrat Results
Primaries:
- Alabama — Won by Joe Biden
- Arkansas — Won by Joe Biden
- California — Won by Joe Biden
- Colorado — Won by Joe Biden
- Maine — Won by Joe Biden
- Massachusetts — Won by Joe Biden
- Minnesota — Won by Joe Biden
- North Carolina — Won by Joe Biden
- Oklahoma — Won by Joe Biden
- Tennessee — Won by Joe Biden
- Texas — Won by Joe Biden
- Utah — Won by Joe Biden
- Vermont — Won by Joe Biden
- Virginia — Won by Joe Biden
