Andrew Gillum, current Mayor of Tallahassee, Florida, has gained popularity over the past year on social media and is considered one of the up-and-coming stars of the Democratic party. He is currently running for Governor of Florida against Republican nominee Ron DeSantis, who is a former U.S. Representative from Florida's 6th district.
Some context on the race: The last time a Democrat held the office in Florida was back in 1999. Buddy MacKay served for two years before Jeb Bush took over and served from 1999 to January of 2007. Florida, an important swing state with 29 electoral votes, went to President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 before flipping back red to Donald Trump in 2016.
So what does the betting market say about this particular race?
2018 Florida Governor Race
Online book currently has Gillum as a -220 favorite (68.8% implied probability) to be the next Governor of Florida. Politics site FiveThirtyEight's Governor's model is more bullish on his chances, giving him a 77.0% chance to win.
Overall, the FiveThirtyEight model has Democrats and Republicans nearly splitting the 50 governor's seats after Tuesday's midterms. Their predictions has on average Democrats governing 24 seats vs. 26 for Republicans. However, given the state sizes, that means a large discrepancy in terms of actual people.
- Average population forecasted to be governed by Democrats: 195 million
- Average population forecasted to be governed by Republicans: 134 million
Looking at the 12 or so most important swing states in each presidential election cycle, it's clear the Democrats are benefiting from increased enthusiasm this year. Here are FiveThirtyEight's predictions for tomorrow:
- Colorado: Democrats 94.9% to win
- Florida: Democrats 77.0% to win
- Iowa: Democrats 53.0% to win
- Michigan: Democrats 94.1% to win
- Minnesota: Democrats 90.4% to win
- Ohio: Democrats 59.2% to win
- Nevada: Democrats 51.0% to win
- New Hampshire: Republicans 85.8% to win
- North Carolina: Controlled by Democrat
- Pennsylvania: Democrats 99.1% to win
- Virginia: Controlled by Democrat
- Wisconsin: Democrats 60.9% to win
Of the 12 most important swing states ahead of the 2020 election, FiveThirtyEight is predicting 11 of them to be run by a Democratic governor come Wednesday.
