Florida is a key state for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and Donald Trump is favored to take it home. Florida has become a crucial state for Republicans and Trump will hope another win there will propel him in his hopes to reclaim the presidency.
Florida Presidential Election Odds
| Source | Trump | Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 96% | 4% |
| BetMGM | 90% | 9% |
Last updated Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET
As of Tuesday night, Trump holds the projected lead at both prediction markets and at BetMGM UK.
If you're in the U.S., you can bet the election at a social sportsbook like Rebet. Learn more about sweepstakes betting here (hint: it's very similar to real betting). They're offering election odds, with Trump favored at -193 as of Tuesday afternoon.
Florida Election Prediction & Forecast
- 538: Trump +0.8%, Trump 56% to win
- Split Ticket: Trump +1.8, Trump 60% to win
- 24cast: Trump +2.8%, Trump 73% to win
One area that Florida might break similarly to Iowa would be with older white women, who largely broke disproportionately more than expected for Harris in the recent Selzer poll.
The Florida retirement community could play a factor here, but Florida also has several other unique factors with its demographics that, like Texas, it mainly only comes into play as part of a larger polling environment miss.
That’s probably why the odds run slightly closer together for the two candidates than Texas, making this also a spot to just pass on.
Verdict: Pass
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Election Odds in Other Key States
- Arizona: Trump entered Election Day as about a 2-1 favorite, but is that price too steep? Early voting data and district level polling is suggesting statewide and national polling is more likely underestimating Harris in this cycle.
- Georgia: There's a lot to still be decided in Georgia, a red state shifting blue over the last eight years, with turnout in both red and blue counties already up from 2020 in early voting.
- Iowa: Trump dropped from a massive favorite to a slightly less massive favorite over the weekend thanks to some prominent pollsters releasing their data. There's still some betting value on the board, but you may have to lay a steep price.
- Michigan: Joe Biden took Michigan in 2020 and Harris seems poised for another victory here as a slight favorite entering the day.
- Nevada: Mail-in ballots in Clark County (where Las Vegas is located) will play a huge role in NV — is it enough to give the edge to Harris, who is a small underdog entering Tuesday?
- New Hampshire: Harris is a big favorite here, but in the event of a broad polling miss, there's some betting value on a prop here.
- North Carolina: Trump is favored in the Tar Heel State, but should he be? This race will likely come down to which side goes to the independent voters.
- Ohio: Trump is a massive favorite in Ohio, which has gone red the last two elections after going blue for Barack Obama the previous two.
- Pennsylvania: The most important state in the election, PA is close to 50/50 entering Election Day.
- Texas: Trump is a huge favorite in Texas and only a big polling miss would create any changes there.
- Wisconsin: Joe Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 by just more than 20,000 votes, and WI is setting up for another razor-thin race in 2024.
