Georgia is a key battleground state for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and Donald Trump is favored to take it home. After the former Republican stronghold flipped blue in helping Joe Biden win election in 2020, Trump is hoping to turn the state back in his favor to help him reclaim the presidency.
Georgia Presidential Election Odds
| Source | Trump | Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 65% | 35% |
| BetMGM | 65% | 35% |
Last updated Monday, 10 p.m. ET
As of Monday night, Trump holds the projected lead at both prediction markets and at BetMGM UK.
Georgia Election Prediction & Forecast
- 538: Trump +1.7%, Trump 63% to win
- Split Ticket: Trump +1.5, Trump 58% to win
- 24cast: Harris +1.3%, Harris 61% to win
Georgia is going to be one of the states to watch based on early-voting data.
The 15 biggest 2020 Biden counties currently sit at 101% of the 2022 midterm turnout, while the rest of the state is at 102%. That means both blue and red counties have turned out early at nearly equal rates compared to the total 2022 midterm turnout, with a slight Republican edge by about 1%.
The only issue I could see for Republicans here is that if they are shifting more toward an early vote than in 2020, while Democrats shift back to an election day vote, then they’d want to be running more than one percentage point better in the rest of the state than the top-15 Biden.
That’s because both 2020 and 2022 were razor-thin elections in Georgia. In the 2022 midterms a Democrat won the senate, while a Republican won the governor's office. And back in 2020 Georgia was the state with the closest margin in the presidential election.
I can see Georgia looking anywhere from a thin Trump win to a Harris win since there’s more turnout remaining in the Biden counties. In other words, a toss up.
A toss-up race means +160 odds are too long, making Harris a solid bet.
However, an even better bet at Kalshi may be Georgia as the closest state at 8% implied odds.
Verdict:Bet Georgia as state with closest margin at anything less than 10% implied odds.
If you do bet at BetMGM, be sure to use our BetMGM bonus code ACTION for$1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win.
Election Odds in Other Key States
- Arizona: Trump entered Election Day as about a 2-1 favorite, but is that price too steep? Early voting data and district level polling is suggesting statewide and national polling is more likely underestimating Harris in this cycle.
- Florida: Trump is a huge favorite in the Sunshine State, and a Harris win would be the result of a major polling miss nationally.
- Iowa: Trump dropped from a massive favorite to a slightly less massive favorite over the weekend thanks to some prominent pollsters releasing their data. There's still some betting value on the board, but you may have to lay a steep price.
- Michigan: Joe Biden took Michigan in 2020 and Harris seems poised for another victory here as a slight favorite entering the day.
- Nevada: Mail-in ballots in Clark County (where Las Vegas is located) will play a huge role in NV — is it enough to give the edge to Harris, who is a small underdog entering Tuesday?
- New Hampshire: Harris is a big favorite here, but in the event of a broad polling miss, there's some betting value on a prop here.
- North Carolina: Trump is favored in the Tar Heel State, but should he be? This race will likely come down to which side goes to the independent voters.
- Ohio: Trump is a massive favorite in Ohio, which has gone red the last two elections after going blue for Barack Obama the previous two.
- Pennsylvania: The most important state in the election, PA is close to 50/50 entering Election Day.
- Texas: Trump is a huge favorite in Texas and only a big polling miss would create any changes there.
- Wisconsin: Joe Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 by just more than 20,000 votes, and WI is setting up for another razor-thin race in 2024.
