As the 2024 Presidential Election approaches, Arizona, where Joe Biden pulled off a surprise victory in 2020, has emerged as a key state.
Prior to the 2020 election, the Republican candidate had won Arizona in five consecutive presidential elections. With a 49.4% to 49.1% victory, Biden was able to buck that trend. Will Kamala Harris be able to do the same? Or will Donald Trump win Arizona?
Here is how the Harris vs. Trump election odds and polling numbers currently look.
Trump vs. Harris Arizona Odds
| Presidential Candidate | BetMGM UK Arizona Odds | Implied Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -400 | 73.7% |
| Kamala Harris | +250 | 26.3% |
Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is currently not legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States.
BetMGM UK's Arizona state odds do not indicate that it's likely for Harris to pull off a significant upset, with Trump given a near 3-of-4 chance at taking home the state.
In 2016, Trump comfortably won the state, defeating Hillary Clinton with a 48.7% to 45.1% edge.
Trump vs. Harris Arizona Polling Numbers
According to Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Trump has a solid two-point edge in Arizona polling. That sentiment is echoed by both FiveThirtyEight, which has Trump at +1.9, and the New York Times, which also has Trump +2.
Harris vs. Trump Election Odds
| Presidential Candidate | BetMGM UK Election Odds | Implied Chance to Win |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -182 | 60.8% |
| Kamala Harris | +140 | 39.2% |
Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed.
In the overall election market, Trump has also been picking up steady ground. He has moved from -150 to -182 within the past two weeks.
At the beginning of October, Harris was a slight favorite to win.