Iowa is a key battleground state for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and Donald Trump is favored to take it home. The Hawkeye State has long been considered a win for Republicans, but recent pulls have Kamala Harris closer to Trump than once thought in the race for the presidency.
Iowa Presidential Election Odds
| Source | Trump | Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 76% | 24% |
| BetMGM | 75% | 25% |
Last updated Monday, 10 p.m. ET
As of Monday night, Trump holds the projected lead at both prediction markets and at BetMGM UK.
Iowa Election Prediction & Forecast
- 538: Trump +7.9%, Trump 94% to win
- Split Ticket: Trump +5.2, Trump 77% to win
- 24cast: Trump +9.2%, Trump 97% to win
The biggest earthquake of the 2024 cycle landed on Saturday as renowned pollster Ann Selzer found Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by a 3% margin in Iowa, a state that Trump won by 8.2% in 2020.
Selzer is the gold standard of polling, often finding unexpected movement when others don’t. For example, when the polling industry widely had Hillary Clinton winning in 2016, Selzer dropped a Trump +7% poll in Iowa. Prior to November, polls had been showing a dead heat, or even a slight Clinton edge in Iowa in October.
The same thing happened in 2020, as Selzer dropped another Trump +7% as the final Iowa poll before election day when the previous seven polls of Iowa ranged from Biden +3 to Trump +2.
So we can’t claim this cycle’s Harris result is the product of a pollster biased toward Democrats.
Selzer’s accuracy is unmatched, so you’d be wise to weigh this poll heavily.
The problem with polling aggregates…they aren’t. Fivethirtyeight actually rates Selzer lower than Emerson, which dropped a Trump +9 just hours prior to the Selzer poll. Emerson had Trump +1 in 2020 and similar in 2016, far less accurate than Selzer.
Meanwhile, while Nate Silver at the Silver Bulletin does give Selzer more weight, it’s only slightly more, leading to a +3.4% polling average and a 5.2% expected margin on election day for Trump.
Certainly getting only +220 isn’t enough on Harris, but Kalshi does have some prop markets that are showing tremendous value.
One such market: “Will Trump win Iowa by more than 12 points?” is 87% no. So while you’re laying -670, professional bettors would have no trouble doing so if they believed the market should be more like -2000.
For Trump to win Iowa by more than 12 points, Selzer, the most accurate pollster, would have to be off by 15 percentage points in margin. Given the margin of error of her poll is 3.4%, that means 95% of the time the Trump-Harris margin should fall within 6.8% of the number given.
Thus, a 15 percentage point swing is more than double the 95% confidence interval of the Selzer poll.
It would take a colossal error by Selzer for this not to be value.
Verdict:Bet Will Trump win Iowa by more than 12 points? – NO at 87% implied odds.
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Election Odds in Other Key States
- Arizona: Trump entered Election Day as about a 2-1 favorite, but is that price too steep? Early voting data and district level polling is suggesting statewide and national polling is more likely underestimating Harris in this cycle.
- Florida: Trump is a huge favorite in the Sunshine State, and a Harris win would be the result of a major polling miss nationally.
- Georgia: There's a lot to still be decided in Georgia, a red state shifting blue over the last eight years, with turnout in both red and blue counties already up from 2020 in early voting.
- Michigan: Joe Biden took Michigan in 2020 and Harris seems poised for another victory here as a slight favorite entering the day.
- Nevada: Mail-in ballots in Clark County (where Las Vegas is located) will play a huge role in NV — is it enough to give the edge to Harris, who is a small underdog entering Tuesday?
- New Hampshire: Harris is a big favorite here, but in the event of a broad polling miss, there's some betting value on a prop here.
- North Carolina: Trump is favored in the Tar Heel State, but should he be? This race will likely come down to which side goes to the independent voters.
- Ohio: Trump is a massive favorite in Ohio, which has gone red the last two elections after going blue for Barack Obama the previous two.
- Pennsylvania: The most important state in the election, PA is close to 50/50 entering Election Day.
- Texas: Trump is a huge favorite in Texas and only a big polling miss would create any changes there.
- Wisconsin: Joe Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 by just more than 20,000 votes, and WI is setting up for another razor-thin race in 2024.
