Michigan is a key battleground state for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and Kamala Harris is favored to take it home. She'll need to win at least two of the three "blue wall" states — the normally-Democratic Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin that flipped to Donald Trump in 2016 — to win the presidency.
Michigan Presidential Election Odds
| Source | Trump | Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 39% | 61% |
| BetMGM | 34% | 66% |
Last updated Monday, 10 p.m. ET
As of Monday night, Harris holds the projected lead at both prediction markets and at BetMGM UK.
Michigan Election Prediction & Forecast
- 538: Harris +0.8%, Harris 56% to win
- Split Ticket: Harris +1.8, Harris 60% to win
- 24cast: Harris +2.8%, Harris 73% to win
In 2020, Michigan went to the Democratic candidate Joe Biden by 2.8% and looks poised to be the safest of the blue wall states for current Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
As of Sunday morning, 2.78 million Michigan residents have voted early, which makes up 50.2% of 2020’s total vote. Absentee (mail) voting in the state has made up 68.4% of the total early vote while in-person voting is the other 31.6%
These are strong signs for Harris as absentee (mail) voting skews heavily Democratic while Republicans have been pushing early in-person voting this cycle.
Harris should win this state, and if you are betting with Kalshi laying the -177 is worth it. However, -250 at BetMGM is too steep.
If you do bet at BetMGM, be sure to use our BetMGM bonus code ACTION for$1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win.
Verdict: Bet Harris at -177
Election Odds in Other Key States
- Arizona: Trump entered Election Day as about a 2-1 favorite, but is that price too steep? Early voting data and district level polling is suggesting statewide and national polling is more likely underestimating Harris in this cycle.
- Florida: Trump is a huge favorite in the Sunshine State, and a Harris win would be the result of a major polling miss nationally.
- Georgia: There's a lot to still be decided in Georgia, a red state shifting blue over the last eight years, with turnout in both red and blue counties already up from 2020 in early voting.
- Iowa: Trump dropped from a massive favorite to a slightly less massive favorite over the weekend thanks to some prominent pollsters releasing their data. There's still some betting value on the board, but you may have to lay a steep price.
- Nevada: Mail-in ballots in Clark County (where Las Vegas is located) will play a huge role in NV — is it enough to give the edge to Harris, who is a small underdog entering Tuesday?
- New Hampshire: Harris is a big favorite here, but in the event of a broad polling miss, there's some betting value on a prop here.
- North Carolina: Trump is favored in the Tar Heel State, but should he be? This race will likely come down to which side goes to the independent voters.
- Ohio: Trump is a massive favorite in Ohio, which has gone red the last two elections after going blue for Barack Obama the previous two.
- Pennsylvania: The most important state in the election, PA is close to 50/50 entering Election Day.
- Texas: Trump is a huge favorite in Texas and only a big polling miss would create any changes there.
- Wisconsin: Joe Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 by just more than 20,000 votes, and WI is setting up for another razor-thin race in 2024.
