With the presidential election drawing closer, presidential election projections are becoming more mature with information pouring in.
One of the key states in the battle for the White House is Michigan, which has been a swing state in recent presidential elections. The candidate who has won Michigan has also won the electoral college in each election since 2008, and there is a high likelihood the winner of Michigan will be victorious overall once again.
So, how are Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump looking in the Wolverine State?
Michigan Presidential Election Projections
According to Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Harris holds a 0.6 point polling average in the state. However, Trump has gained 1.1 points within the past week.
FiveThirtyEight has Harris 0.4 points ahead in Michigan, while the New York Times has Harris 0.7 ahead.
In 2020, Joe Biden secured 50.6% of the vote in Michigan, with Trump amassing 47.8% of the total. Trump narrowly won the state by 0.2% over Hillary Clinton in 2016. Barack Obama dominated Michigan in the 2012 and 2008 elections, garnering 54.2% and 57.4% of the state's votes, respectively.
Here is how the presidential election projections in Michigan currently stack up to the odds.
Michigan Presidential Election Odds
| Presidential Candidate | Michigan Election Odds | Implied Chance to Win Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -105 | 52.6% |
| Donald Trump | -118 | 47.4% |
Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is currently not legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States.
October 19
Trump's momentum in the betting markets has extended to the Michigan state market, where he has overtaken Vice President Harris at BetMGM UK.
The former President flipped from underdog status at +110 into becoming a marginal favorite at -118. Harris went from -133 down to -105.
Trump has seen margin polling gains in the last few days in the Wolverine State, and his odds across the board have become shorter. He is a -162 favorite at BetMGM UK to win the 2024 election.
October 15
According to BetMGM's current presidential odds for the state of Michigan, Harris is a slight favorite at -133. Trump is an underdog at +110.
That equates to a 54.5% implied probability with the juice removed for Harris and a 45.5% implied probability for Trump.
