Nevada is a key battleground state for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and Donald Trump is favored to take it home. It's a key state for both him and Kamala Harris in both candidates' hopes to win the presidency.
Nevada Presidential Election Odds
| Source | Trump | Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 55% | 45% |
| BetMGM | 58% | 42% |
Last updated Monday, 10 p.m. ET
As of Monday night, Trump holds the projected lead at both prediction markets and at BetMGM UK.
Nevada Election Prediction & Forecast
- 538: Trump +0.4%, Trump 53% to win
- Split Ticket: Tie 0.0%, Both 50% to win
- 24cast: Harris +3%, Harris 73% to win
As a Nevada resident, I’ve dug in deeply into this race and I’m betting Harris at +120 despite Republicans having the early vote lead by about 43,000.
The thing about Nevada is there’s going to be a “Red Mirage” in that Clark County, Nev. — where Las Vegas is located — has a backlog of mail-in ballots left to count.
We can estimate this by looking at the rest of the state. When removing Clark County, Republicans lead in turnout by 4%. However, in Clark County Republicans lead by 9.6%. That isn’t a voter enthusiasm gap, but rather the backlog of mail ballots that will heavily skew Democrat.
In non-Clark Nevada, vote-by-mail makes up almost 52% of the total early vote, but in Clark it currently makes up just 47% of the total early vote. And given Clark is such a Democratic stronghold, we’d expect the mail number to be well clear of the rest of the state.
My back-of-the-napkin math also matches the math of Nevada election guru Jon Ralston, putting around 25-30K votes netted for Harris with the rest of the mail ballots in Clark.
That brings the overall margin in the neighborhood of a 15-20K Republican advantage.
But there’s more. Independents in Nevada should skew toward Harris, and likely much more so than in the past.
Some estimates have independents as high as 25% in favor of Harris, but even a 20% edge (60/40) would mean add 43K to the early vote margin for Harris, putting her in a dead heat with Trump in the current early vote even before the upcoming mail votes from Clark are added in.
After that, it all comes down to election day turnout. But with early rural turnout estimated at 80% of total turnout and Clark only at 70% of total turnout, the margins should just increase for Harris.
I make Harris favored in Nevada even though the betting markets have her as an underdog.
Verdict: Bet Harris at any plus-money odds
If you do bet at BetMGM, be sure to use our BetMGM bonus code ACTION for$1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win.
Election Odds in Other Key States
- Arizona: Trump entered Election Day as about a 2-1 favorite, but is that price too steep? Early voting data and district level polling is suggesting statewide and national polling is more likely underestimating Harris in this cycle.
- Florida: Trump is a huge favorite in the Sunshine State, and a Harris win would be the result of a major polling miss nationally.
- Georgia: There's a lot to still be decided in Georgia, a red state shifting blue over the last eight years, with turnout in both red and blue counties already up from 2020 in early voting.
- Iowa: Trump dropped from a massive favorite to a slightly less massive favorite over the weekend thanks to some prominent pollsters releasing their data. There's still some betting value on the board, but you may have to lay a steep price.
- Michigan: Joe Biden took Michigan in 2020 and Harris seems poised for another victory here as a slight favorite entering the day.
- New Hampshire: Harris is a big favorite here, but in the event of a broad polling miss, there's some betting value on a prop here.
- North Carolina: Trump is favored in the Tar Heel State, but should he be? This race will likely come down to which side goes to the independent voters.
- Ohio: Trump is a massive favorite in Ohio, which has gone red the last two elections after going blue for Barack Obama the previous two.
- Pennsylvania: The most important state in the election, PA is close to 50/50 entering Election Day.
- Texas: Trump is a huge favorite in Texas and only a big polling miss would create any changes there.
- Wisconsin: Joe Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 by just more than 20,000 votes, and WI is setting up for another razor-thin race in 2024.
