New Hampshire is a key state for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and Kamala Harris is favored to take it home. Along with the "blue wall" of Democratic strongholds in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris will need to keep Democratic hold of New Hampshire in order to win the presidency.
New Hampshire Presidential Election Odds
| Source | Trump | Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 18% | 82% |
| BetMGM | 15% | 85% |
Last updated Monday, 10 p.m. ET
As of Monday night, Harris holds the projected lead at both prediction markets and at BetMGM UK.
New Hampshire Election Prediction & Forecast
- 538: Harris +4.9%, Harris 84% to win
- Split Ticket: Harris +5.5, Harris 78% to win
- 24cast: Harris +6.4%, Harris 92% to win
I get that I’ve been betting on close races or on Harris in most states, but that’s just where the data has been taking me. However, if you’re looking to bet a Trump win, this is the spot to do so.
In an environment where there’s a polling miss underestimating Trump, the seven most commonly cited swing states going in his favor is the most likely outcome.
If Trump wins all those, the next blue state on the list to fall would be either Minnesota or New Hampshire. However, with Harris’ vice presidential selection of Tim Walz, you have to think that’s a bit of an isolating factor for Minnesota.
As a result, New Hampshire is the state that I think becomes the closest in a polling miss underestimating Trump.
Verdict:Bet New Hampshire as state with closest margin at anything less than 7% implied odds.
If you do bet at BetMGM, be sure to use our BetMGM bonus code ACTION for$1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win.
Election Odds in Other Key States
- Arizona: Trump entered Election Day as about a 2-1 favorite, but is that price too steep? Early voting data and district level polling is suggesting statewide and national polling is more likely underestimating Harris in this cycle.
- Florida: Trump is a huge favorite in the Sunshine State, and a Harris win would be the result of a major polling miss nationally.
- Georgia: There's a lot to still be decided in Georgia, a red state shifting blue over the last eight years, with turnout in both red and blue counties already up from 2020 in early voting.
- Iowa: Trump dropped from a massive favorite to a slightly less massive favorite over the weekend thanks to some prominent pollsters releasing their data. There's still some betting value on the board, but you may have to lay a steep price.
- Michigan: Joe Biden took Michigan in 2020 and Harris seems poised for another victory here as a slight favorite entering the day.
- Nevada: Mail-in ballots in Clark County (where Las Vegas is located) will play a huge role in NV — is it enough to give the edge to Harris, who is a small underdog entering Tuesday?
- North Carolina: Trump is favored in the Tar Heel State, but should he be? This race will likely come down to which side goes to the independent voters.
- Ohio: Trump is a massive favorite in Ohio, which has gone red the last two elections after going blue for Barack Obama the previous two.
- Pennsylvania: The most important state in the election, PA is close to 50/50 entering Election Day.
- Texas: Trump is a huge favorite in Texas and only a big polling miss would create any changes there.
- Wisconsin: Joe Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 by just more than 20,000 votes, and WI is setting up for another razor-thin race in 2024.
