North Carolina is a key battleground state for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and Donald Trump is favored to take it home. This is a state that Trump and the Republicans are counting on, but one where Kamala Harris is hoping to take away a state that Trump won four years ago in her attempt to claim the presidency.
North Carolina Presidential Election Odds
| Source | Trump | Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 64% | 36% |
| BetMGM | 65% | 35% |
Last updated Monday, 10 p.m. ET
As of Monday night, Trump holds the projected lead at both prediction markets and at BetMGM UK.
North Carolina Election Prediction & Forecast
- 538: Trump +1.4%, Trump 62% to win
- Split Ticket: Trump +1.4, Trump 58% to win
- 24cast: Harris +1.8%, Harris 65% to win
Early voting shows a dead heat between Republicans and Democrats, with the difference between the two parties just over 41,000 with over 4.4 million votes cast. That’s a margin of less than 1% in favor of Republicans.
One issue for Harris in NC is turnout in Wake County, where state capital Raleigh is located, has essentially equal turnout for both parties. That means there isn’t a bunch of room to make up for Democrats in the largest county.
It’s encouraging for Democrats that highly educated Chatham, Durham, and Orange counties are producing huge turnouts. These areas should have independent voters breaking disproportionately for Harris, so it is a sign of strength for her.
In all, this looks like a tossup race that leans Harris. The overall voting electorate should lean Republican by a couple percentage points, so it all comes down to how independents break.
Given turnout rates among independents are in higher educated areas, and correlation of early-vote independent turnout is higher with democratic early-vote turnout than republican early-vote turnout, it’s quite likely they break toward Harris. The question is by how much.
Verdict:Lean Harris 34% at Kalshi or +170 at BetMGM UK.
If you do bet at BetMGM, be sure to use our BetMGM bonus code ACTION for$1,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win.
Election Odds in Other Key States
- Arizona: Trump entered Election Day as about a 2-1 favorite, but is that price too steep? Early voting data and district level polling is suggesting statewide and national polling is more likely underestimating Harris in this cycle.
- Florida: Trump is a huge favorite in the Sunshine State, and a Harris win would be the result of a major polling miss nationally.
- Georgia: There's a lot to still be decided in Georgia, a red state shifting blue over the last eight years, with turnout in both red and blue counties already up from 2020 in early voting.
- Iowa: Trump dropped from a massive favorite to a slightly less massive favorite over the weekend thanks to some prominent pollsters releasing their data. There's still some betting value on the board, but you may have to lay a steep price.
- Michigan: Joe Biden took Michigan in 2020 and Harris seems poised for another victory here as a slight favorite entering the day.
- Nevada: Mail-in ballots in Clark County (where Las Vegas is located) will play a huge role in NV — is it enough to give the edge to Harris, who is a small underdog entering Tuesday?
- New Hampshire: Harris is a big favorite here, but in the event of a broad polling miss, there's some betting value on a prop here.
- Ohio: Trump is a massive favorite in Ohio, which has gone red the last two elections after going blue for Barack Obama the previous two.
- Pennsylvania: The most important state in the election, PA is close to 50/50 entering Election Day.
- Texas: Trump is a huge favorite in Texas and only a big polling miss would create any changes there.
- Wisconsin: Joe Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 by just more than 20,000 votes, and WI is setting up for another razor-thin race in 2024.
