While Donald Trump has won North Carolina the last two elections, this year's situation is far different, mostly because of severe down-ballot concerns.
Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson has been embroiled in controversy after, among other foibles, old incendiary posts of his on an adult film forum were reported by CNN last month. In that story, CNN reported that Robinson referred to himself as a "black Nazi" and wrote a series of graphic posts about his pornographic preferences.
He's expected to lose this election handedly, and it may result in a handful of traditionally Republican voters abstaining from this election altogether or switching their presidential votes to align with their gubernatorial pick.
For Trump to win, many North Carolina voters will have to split the ticket between Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein and Trump. Even so, that's what the market expects to happen: Trump is still the heavy favorite in North Carolina despite problems with Robinson, whom Trump referred to earlier this year as "Martin Luther King on steroids."
For reference, Robinson is losing the polling battle by about 20 points to Stein, who is also gaining steam among moderate Republicans, according to recent polls.
North Carolina Trump vs. Harris Election Odds
| Presidential Candidate | North Carolina Election Odds | Implied Chance to Win North Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -225 | 63.4% |
| Kamala Harris | +150 | 36.6% |
Odds are according to BetMGM UK. The percentages are based on implied probabilities with the vigorish removed. Gambling on elections is currently not legally allowed at sportsbooks in the United States, although trades involving election markets are under court review.
Nevada Polling Projections
Trump has a roughly 27% edge in this market on account of previous performances. He won North Carolina in 2020 by 1.5% and in 2016 by 3.7%, but the current polling doesn't necessarily match up with the betting odds.
According to Nate Silver's polling assessment at Silver Bulletin, Trump holds just a 0.7% lead in this crucial state. Harris has actually led the polling at points throughout September and October, so expect this to be an incredibly close race despite the market odds.
