Ohio is a key battleground state for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and Donald Trump is favored to take it home. It's an important state for the former president to hang on to after he won it by 8 points in 2020, and he'll look to keep that advantage as he hopes to reclaim the presidency.
Ohio Presidential Election Odds
| Source | Trump | Harris |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 90% | 10% |
| BetMGM | 92% | 8% |
Last updated Monday, 10 p.m. ET
As of Monday night, Trump holds the projected lead at both prediction markets and at BetMGM UK.
Ohio Election Prediction & Forecast
- 538: Trump +8.8%, Trump 96% to win
- Split Ticket: Trump +7.3, Trump 85% to win
- 24cast: Trump +9.1%, Trump 97% to win
The Selzer poll has regional impacts on Ohio, and we shouldn’t discount the possibility of a regional shift toward democrats after a poll showing Harris down just 3 in Ohio (a state Trump won by 8 in 2020), another showing Harris down just 5 in Kansas (a state Trump won by 14.6% in 2020), and a Nebraska 2nd district poll showing Harris up 12% in a district Biden won by 6.5%.
That said, I think the only way to play Ohio is part of a mass polling error which has some nonzero indications based off this subset of polls.
Verdict:Lean Ohio as state with closest margin at 1% implied odds.
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Election Odds in Other Key States
- Arizona: Trump entered Election Day as about a 2-1 favorite, but is that price too steep? Early voting data and district level polling is suggesting statewide and national polling is more likely underestimating Harris in this cycle.
- Florida: Trump is a huge favorite in the Sunshine State, and a Harris win would be the result of a major polling miss nationally.
- Georgia: There's a lot to still be decided in Georgia, a red state shifting blue over the last eight years, with turnout in both red and blue counties already up from 2020 in early voting.
- Iowa: Trump dropped from a massive favorite to a slightly less massive favorite over the weekend thanks to some prominent pollsters releasing their data. There's still some betting value on the board, but you may have to lay a steep price.
- Michigan: Joe Biden took Michigan in 2020 and Harris seems poised for another victory here as a slight favorite entering the day.
- Nevada: Mail-in ballots in Clark County (where Las Vegas is located) will play a huge role in NV — is it enough to give the edge to Harris, who is a small underdog entering Tuesday?
- New Hampshire: Harris is a big favorite here, but in the event of a broad polling miss, there's some betting value on a prop here.
- North Carolina: Trump is favored in the Tar Heel State, but should he be? This race will likely come down to which side goes to the independent voters.
- Pennsylvania: The most important state in the election, PA is close to 50/50 entering Election Day.
- Texas: Trump is a huge favorite in Texas and only a big polling miss would create any changes there.
- Wisconsin: Joe Biden won Wisconsin in 2020 by just more than 20,000 votes, and WI is setting up for another razor-thin race in 2024.
